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It appears that the College Football Playoff expansion is on the horizon, set to happen in the near future.
Michigan State is the sole in-state team to have made it to the playoff in its relatively short history. With the expansion, will Michigan be able to overcome this barrier and secure a spot at the table?
What implications will an expanded playoff have on the Michigan sports betting scene?
12-Team College Football Playoff Proposed
The NCAA Division I-A football introduced a four-team playoff in the 2014-15 season, and it has continued for several years since then.
A proposal was presented by a sub-group of the management committee of the College Football Playoff earlier this month, suggesting a modification to the playoff format by expanding it into a 12-team tournament.
As per the new proposal, the bracket would comprise the top six conference champions ranked highest, in addition to the next six teams ranked highest according to the committee’s ranking.
Every conference would not be eligible for automatic qualification, and there would be no restriction on the number of participants allowed for any given conference.
The top four conference champions would be given seeds 1-4 and granted a first-round bye. Teams ranked fifth through twelfth would compete against each other in the first round, with the game taking place at the home field of the higher-ranked team.
The quarterfinals and semifinals would be held within the bowl game framework, while the championship game would be hosted at a different neutral location every year.
The 12-team playoff will not receive approval for the upcoming 2021-22 season, however, there is a possibility that the format could be implemented by 2025.
What could have been for Michigan Wolverines
In the search for a spot in the four-team playoff, Michigan has persistently struggled to find success. Nonetheless, if a 12-team College Football Playoff expansion had existed previously, the Wolverines would have undoubtedly secured a place in it.
The final College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings of 2018 placed Michigan at seventh, while in 2016, the Wolverines secured the sixth spot.
In both 2015 and 2019, U-M narrowly fell short of making the cut, securing the 14th position.
In the newly suggested format, Michigan would have not just qualified for the postseason, but also had the opportunity to host a first-round game in both 2016 and 2018.
The expanded playoff provides an opportunity for teams like Michigan to compete for a national title, despite Ohio State’s dominance in the Big Ten Conference.
The CFP committee is likely to give a 10-win Michigan team the benefit of the doubt, meaning they may not necessarily need to defeat Ohio State to secure a spot in the playoffs.
Michigan State gets a shot (and so does the MAC)
In the 2015 season, Michigan State was the sole in-state program to participate in the ongoing College Football Playoff.
If 12 teams were permitted, MSU would have undoubtedly been a regular contender in the playoffs during its initial years. Even in 2014, MSU secured the eighth position in the rankings, which would have guaranteed its entry into the playoffs.
Despite being in a rebuilding phase, the Spartans now have a more achievable goal to aim for with the expanded playoffs.
The aforementioned holds true for the Mid-American Conference programs within the state. While the expanded playoff format doesn’t guarantee every team a chance each season, it does offer them a glimmer of hope.
A non-Power Five program is guaranteed a spot each season with the inclusion of the six highest-ranked conference champions. If the MAC produces a dominant champion, they will have an opportunity.
Coach PJ Fleck would have led Western Michigan to qualify in 2016. The Broncos, ranked 15th, would have been the sixth conference champion in the final rankings to secure a spot.
Expect college football futures odds to look different
The introduction of the 12-team College Football Playoff expansion is expected to have a substantial impact on the future odds of the sport.
This is what you should anticipate when playoff expansion commences.
The odds of winning the national title are expected to remain relatively stable for the top-tier teams, while teams on the next level may experience slightly shorter odds. The focus now shifts from simply qualifying for the playoffs to navigating through the bracket successfully. As more teams have improved chances of making it to the playoffs, the odds of winning the title need to be slightly more favorable for a wider range of teams.
The chances of making it to the playoffs will certainly decrease for all teams. The potential reward for placing a bet will also diminish, as more teams will now qualify. Nevertheless, successfully identifying the sixth conference champion qualifier could still result in a significant payout.
The significance of a conference title will remain, but its weight may be slightly diminished. Teams might adopt a more strategic approach to managing injured players and not fret as much over a single loss. The impact on conference race odds is uncertain until we experience a season under these conditions, but they are bound to be influenced in some manner.
The new format is expected to have a slight effect on win totals, similar to conference odds. The significance of going undefeated may decrease, leading to a potential decrease in the importance of individual wins in certain situations.
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