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BetMGM has lots to lose on Michigan Wolverines
As Jamie Foxx would say, BetMGM Sportsbook typically has a significant stake when it comes to supporting teams from outside the state of Michigan.
BetMGM experienced significant growth during a period when Michigan held a prominent position in the industry.
In 2020, BetMGM successfully raised funds for a major industry expansion, with the launch of its services in Michigan being the next significant milestone. The efforts paid off, as BetMGM has now established itself as one of the top three players in the state alongside DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel MI.
However, it is important to note that the book significantly relies on the tendencies of homer betting habits in this state, just like in any other state.
Books often find themselves in a bind when BetMGM provides updates on bet counts for events, as there is typically a strong focus on Detroit or Michigan, causing them trouble.
Examples of such include placing long-shot wagers on the Detroit Tigers triumphing in the World Series, or pitcher Casey Mize emerging as the Rookie of the Year. Alternatively, one might consider former Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford securing the highly coveted MVP title during his inaugural season with the Los Angeles Rams.
While it’s great when those things don’t occur, what if one of them actually did?
Michigan, Michigan State living up to large liability
According to data specialist John Ewing, BetMGM faces a significant national championship liability this season due to the Spartans and Wolverines. He revealed that the outcome of either team winning the championship could cost BetMGM millions of dollars.
As the wins keep accumulating, the betting activity has increased. Prior to the start of the season, only 3.3% of the national championship handle in NCAA football betting was placed on Michigan. However, this week that percentage has risen to 3.8%, positioning them seventh among all teams in terms of betting popularity nationwide.
Michigan State’s national title handle for the green and gold initially stood at a mere 0.3%. However, thanks to increased betting from residents of Michigan, that percentage has now risen to 1.1%, placing them 15th among all teams.
Despite their success, the odds for the local teams continue to remain high, contributing to this increase.
The college football world is currently witnessing Alabama and Georgia emerge as the undisputed leaders, significantly increasing the odds for all other teams.
However, we are all aware of how quickly the college football landscape can change from one week to another.
According to BetMGM, Michigan’s 38-17 victory over Wisconsin was the eighth most popular college football game for betting this season. The local support for the team is consistently seen throughout the weeks.
In the meantime, Michigan State came close to breaking into the top 10 with a couple of wins. Their dominant 38-17 victory over Miami (Fla.) was the 11th most bet-on game, while the thrilling 23-20 overtime triumph against Nebraska ranked at No. 12.
The recent success of local teams has caused a significant decrease in the odds prices. Initially, Michigan had odds of 25-1 to win the Big Ten and 100-1 to win the national championship before the season began. Now, their odds have improved to 6-1 and 40-1, respectively. Similarly, Michigan State’s odds have also improved from 100-1 to 20-1 for winning the Big Ten, and from 300-1 to 100-1 for winning the national championship.
Michigan State more popular of a bet at WynnBET
Despite Michigan’s traditional status as a public team, WynnBET Sportsbook has observed a surge in activity on the Spartans this season.
Matt Lindeman, senior lead trader at WynnBET, revealed that there was an unexpected surge of interest in Michigan State rather than Michigan at the start of the season. This shift in perception can be attributed to a series of disappointing seasons in Ann Arbor. Compared to previous years, Michigan’s projected number of wins for this season was significantly lower at 7.5. Interestingly, the Wolverines are now exceeding preseason expectations, which is a rarity during Jim Harbaugh’s tenure as head coach.
According to Lindeman, smart gamblers eagerly placed bets on MSU’s victory over Northwestern, and a substantial number of them supported MSU against Miami as well. However, due to Michigan’s consistent status as a strong favorite in three out of five games, bettors have been hesitant to risk betting on them with such a significant point spread.
However, Lindeman mentioned that WynnBET might still be held responsible as the season progresses.
“He mentioned that Michigan’s most significant games are still on the horizon. Should the Wolverines successfully evade any unexpected losses in the upcoming three weeks, we can anticipate a rise in the number of bets placed on their matches in November.”
Michigan will indeed play at MSU on October 30th, and then embark on a challenging series of games in November against Indiana, No. 4 Penn State, Maryland, and No. 7 Ohio State.
PointsBet’s local liabilities not quite as significant
At PointsBet Sportsbook, there is a significant amount of NCAA football betting activity centered around Michigan and Michigan State.
PointsBet has identified Michigan State as the bookmaker’s most significant risk to win the Big Ten title, with Michigan ranking third in terms of liability.
Second place belongs to Iowa, which is ranked third and is also where PointsBet operates.
In terms of overall handle this season, Michigan’s dominant victory over Wisconsin ranked among the top 20 games, while Michigan State’s game against Miami ranked in the top 30.
While PointsBet has not reached the same level of liabilities as BetMGM, it is important to note that they are operating at a smaller scale in Michigan. As of August, PointsBet has received $72.4 million in online sports bets, whereas BetMGM has accumulated a much higher amount of $434.4 million.
According to a spokesperson from PointsBet, the book considers the Big Ten as a risk, especially since it is operational in states like Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, and Iowa, where Big Ten games are prominent.
According to trading content analyst Mike Korn, teams like Penn State, Iowa, and Ohio State have brought immense talent to the Big Ten this year. However, he believes that Michigan and Michigan State have the potential to create a significant impact as well as the season progresses.
Michigan’s national footprint adding to sportsbooks’ woes
The influence is not limited to Michigan alone.
FanDuel, the prominent figure in sports betting, holds a significant liability on a Michigan national championship, even as the national leader in this domain.
However, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, with their strong and devoted allegiances, present the biggest liability as they are considered a long shot.
If you are someone who supports sportsbooks, then the recent loss of the Fighting Irish at home to Cincinnati seems like a safe bet for you. However, the bets on Michigan are performing well and are currently FanDuel’s second biggest risk, despite them having the 10th highest national championship handle at only 3%.
The influence of Michiganders on the overall market will decrease as additional states introduce sports betting for NCAA football and other events.
During this specific period, Mel Tucker and Jim Harbaugh’s teams have the potential to disrupt sportsbooks significantly.
Following the showdown in East Lansing on Oct. 30, it is certain that at least one of these teams will have a loss to their name. This will undoubtedly bring some satisfaction to Michigan sportsbooks, especially BetMGM.
Can you please rewrite this sentence for me?
