Calder Trophy Odds Analysis: Is NHL Rookie Award Lucas Raymond’s To Lose?

Can you rephrase this?

Therefore, you have made a wager on Lucas Raymond emerging as the winner of the Calder Trophy.

What happens next?

To begin with, congratulations are in order. Your decision is already proving to be a wise one. Raymond, a 19-year-old winger from Sweden, has rapidly emerged as the frontrunner for the Calder Trophy, the NHL’s prestigious award for the rookie of the year.

Despite facing strong competition, Raymond seems to have a firm grip on the award in the first 18 games of his career. However, we will discuss more about the other contenders later.

We will now examine the portion of the Michigan sports betting market that the emerging star has captured, the changes in betting odds, and how all of this impacts the Detroit Red Wings and their chances throughout the season.

First, some perspective on Lucas Raymond

Raymond entered Thursday night’s matchup versus the Vegas Golden Knights with a total of 18 points, consisting of seven goals and 11 assists, all achieved over the course of 18 games.

Heading into Wednesday, the Red Wings’ top line consisting of Raymond, Dylan Larkin, and Tyler Bertuzzi ranked fourth among all NHL lines in expected goals-for per 60 minutes. This statistic is promising for Raymond’s ability to maintain his current performance level.

In fact, this pace is comparable to or even surpasses that of every player who has won the award since 2008, with the exception of Elias Pettersson (2018-19), the center for Vancouver, who managed to accumulate 19 points in 18 games.

Isn’t it impressive? It becomes even more impressive when you consider the context.

Artemi Panarin, a Russian forward, earned the award in 2015-16 after playing three complete seasons in the KHL. In his final season, he maintained an impressive average of over one point per game. Similarly, Kirill Kaprizov from Minnesota followed a comparable trajectory. He became a full-time player in the KHL and recorded 42 points in 49 games during the 2016-17 season. At the age of 24, Kaprizov recently received the Calder award during the summer.

In their respective draft-plus-3 seasons, Mathew Barzal (2017-18) and Cale Makar (2019-20), both emerged as standout players and were awarded for their exceptional performances. On the other hand, Raymond is making a significant impact on the league during his draft-plus-2 year, attracting attention with his outstanding skills. Interestingly, Auston Matthews (2016-17), center for Toronto, had a relatively slow start to his career, scoring only 13 points in his first 18 games, despite an impressive four-goal debut.

It should be noted that the statement does not claim Raymond will surpass past Calder Trophy winners in terms of ability. However, a more detailed analysis of his performance suggests that we might be witnessing the emergence of a future star.

Calder Trophy odds update

While those who placed a bet on Raymond winning the Calder Trophy are probably excited about these results, the oddsmakers at Michigan sportsbooks, who offered odds as high as +3400 for Raymond before the season, are likely feeling uneasy.

Raymond is increasingly becoming a more problematic liability for sportsbooks as his odds decline, while his handle and ticket percentage rise.

According to BetMGM Sportsbook data on November 11th, Raymond had a ticket percentage of 36.5% and a handle percentage of 38.8%, with odds of +325. As of this week, Raymond’s odds have changed to +250 on BetMGM. He has scored four points in his last three games leading up to Wednesday, and currently holds a ticket percentage of 38% and a handle percentage of 44.3%.

Challengers to Raymond and the Calder Trophy

In addition, over the past week, Trevor Zegras, the forward for the Anaheim Ducks, has been performing exceptionally well. Zegras has managed to accumulate a total of five points, consisting of four goals and one assist, in his last two games leading up to Wednesday, coinciding with the release of BetMGM’s latest data.

Zegras’ chances on BetMGM have only slightly increased from +450 to +500 in the past week. However, on DraftKings Sportsbook, his odds have improved to +350, while Raymond is at +250. It will be fascinating to monitor the data for Zegras in the upcoming week, as there hasn’t been a significant rise in bets placed on him, and he currently holds just 4.1% of the BetMGM handle.

On the other hand, Moritz Seider, Raymond’s teammate from the Red Wings, continues to stick around.

In 18 games, the sole rookie trailing Raymond in points is the German defenseman, who stands at an impressive height of 6-foot-4. He has contributed 13 points, consisting of two goals and 11 assists.

Seider’s performance as a defenseman can be considered more remarkable than Raymond’s as a forward, although the current point trends among young, top-level defensemen suggest that Seider is not as disadvantaged as initially perceived.

Seider has the potential to be a strong contender for the Calder Trophy next year. However, currently, he is not scoring enough goals. On the other hand, Raymond’s impressive performance, ability to create highlight-worthy plays, and timely goals firmly position him as the frontrunner for the league’s top rookie by the end of the season.

Please rewrite your request.