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The 2021 NHL Entry Draft is just around the corner, but unfortunately, the experts’ mock draft predictions are far from aligned. In fact, things are more uncertain than ever before.
The Detroit Red Wings at No. 6 could potentially experience a tumultuous Friday night.
On Monday, TSN reporter Bob McKenzie published his ultimate draft rankings, which were based on a survey of NHL scouts. The consensus throughout the year was that Owen Power held the top spot, making him the sole candidate to maintain his ranking at No. 1.
However, the Buffalo Sabres are not necessarily swayed by the majority opinion of the league. They demonstrated this last year when they made an unconventional choice by selecting winger Jack Quinn at No. 8, despite highly-regarded centers Marco Rossi and Cole Perfetti being on the board. Many mock drafts had predicted that the Detroit Red Wings, who held the No. 4 pick, would select either Rossi or Perfetti.
According to McKenzie, while a draft day shakeup is not uncommon, the remarkable balance at the top of this year’s draft board is unprecedented.
During an interview on Sportscentre on Monday, McKenzie expressed his astonishment at the extremely close competition among the players ranked two to six. He described the situation as unprecedented and claimed that he had never witnessed such tight competition in any other year.
Michigan standouts may not be available for Detroit
Most 2021 NHL Draft predictions suggest that Power and fellow Michigan standout Matthew Beniers won’t be available for the Red Wings. However, it’s worth noting that prior to the MLB Draft, the Detroit Tigers and many other teams were strongly rumored to have prep shortstop Marcelo Mayer as their top pick.
No one expected Mayer to still be available at the third pick, and certainly not for the Boston Red Sox at number four. The Pittsburgh Pirates selecting Henry Davis, a catcher from Louisville, caused a halt in the draft process. The teams had become so enamored with the players ranked below Mayer that when it was time to make their selection, the projected number one pick was less desirable. Detroit, after thoroughly evaluating Jackson Jobe’s worth and potential, ultimately secured him as their top choice.
Consider the 2020 NFL Draft, for instance. The Detroit Lions had a golden opportunity to secure the second-most talented quarterback from an exceptional pool, a move that would have likely benefited the organization in the long run. However, both general manager Bob Quinn and head coach Matt Patricia were under immense pressure to produce immediate victories or face termination. With a pressing need for a cornerback, they ultimately decided to draft Jeff Okudah.
Don’t forget about the Red Wings’ 2018 and 2019 drafts, where we saw some surprising picks. Filip Zadina, who was expected to be selected at No. 3, ended up being chosen by the Red Wings at No. 6. Similarly, Moritz Seider was picked by the Red Wings at No. 6 in the following year’s draft, despite being ranked at No. 16 by McKenzie and No. 24 by Sportsnet.
Basically, mock drafts, unless based on insider information, are essentially trying to predict the organizational strategies and external factors that will lead to a specific selection. These influences vary for each team. Some front offices are focused on preserving their jobs, while others are confidently planning for the future. Certain teams are hindered by ownership issues, and a few might be experimenting with new drafting philosophies in order to gain an advantage.
To delve deeper into the potential chaos, let’s analyze the various factors that might lead to the decline of the unanimous top choice.
You can’t predict what the Buffalo Sabres will do
This is more of a general governor rather than one specifically related to drafts.
As anticipated, the Sabres possess the power to bring about destruction. Despite McKenzie’s statement that all scouts he surveyed ranked Power as the top choice, there are rumors suggesting that Buffalo has a strong interest in Swedish forward William Eklund. Eklund has consistently ranked within the top five in various scouting websites such as Elite Prospects (No. 2), Dobber Prospects (2), and McKeen’s Hockey (4).
With only one draft experience in Buffalo, Sabres GM Kevyn Adams made a surprising choice (Quinn) in the top 10, which raises some eyebrows. This might lead him to take a more cautious approach this time or he could completely surprise us. It’s important to mention that the team’s public image is currently at its lowest point, which might create a desire to maintain stability and avoid any controversial moves.
There are several factors influencing this pick, one being the solid state of Buffalo’s defense prospect pipeline. Beniers is also a strong contender in this race and he might be the only one who could prevent a major upset in the draft, where someone other than Power is chosen as the top pick.
However, for the sake of this exercise, let’s assume that Buffalo stays relatively close to their typical choices. Instead of selecting Power and Beniers, the Sabres opt for Eklund, which prevents them from becoming the laughingstock of the evening.
Seattle Kraken could be the true wild card
The Seattle Kraken have officially begun their selection process, with Beniers emerging as the top contender for their No. 2 pick. His exceptional skill set and consistent performance make him a secure choice. Additionally, his advanced level of play suggests he may even join the NHL in the upcoming season, making him an attractive prospect for an expansion team.
If GM Ron Francis were to take that approach, it would be completely logical.
Seattle has no players on its roster until Wednesday night, which is unprecedented for the type of player the front office is seeking. If the Kraken want players with potential, there are numerous options available at every position.
Both defensemen Simon Edvinsson and Luke Hughes possess raw talent, making them strong contenders to become the top players from this draft in five years. Similarly, forwards Dylan Guenther and Kent Johnson share an equal opportunity for this achievement.
Once more, in the context of scientific analysis, let’s simplify things and assume that Beniers’ pre-draft engagements have placed him above Power on Seattle’s rankings. No matter what actions Buffalo takes, Seattle is convinced and committed.
In weaker class, Anaheim Ducks could take big swing
The Anaheim Ducks now possess the power at No. 3, and he would be an exceptional match.
Anaheim possesses a promising group of forward prospects who are poised to make their mark in the upcoming seasons. Therefore, it would be wise to select a defenseman in the draft to complement Jamie Drysdale, who was the fourth overall pick in 2020. If the aim is to find an ideal partner for Drysdale, Power is likely the most suitable choice.
Despite the unpredictability and randomness of prospect rankings for the 2021 NHL Draft predictions, there is a consensus among scouts that this year’s class is below average in terms of talent. This has been the case even before the challenges posed by the global pandemic, which have further complicated draft-year seasons.
Given the reduced opportunity cost of passing on a top pick in a weaker draft, it is logical to take a more aggressive approach. It would be unwise to assume that the Red Wings, for instance, will choose Mason McTavish at No. 6 solely to strengthen their center depth, if they believe that other players have greater potential. Similarly, the Ducks should not automatically select Power just because they need a top-pair defenseman in their pipeline.
Why not take a chance on Swedish goaltender Jesper Wallstedt, the only player in this class with undeniable Hall-of-Fame potential? Despite the hesitation around selecting goalies in the top 10, his exceptional talent alone justifies picking him third overall.
Wallstedt is the chosen one.
How much is politics in play for New Jersey?
Now, the New Jersey Devils find themselves in a predicament as they sit at No. 4.
The expected top pick in the 2021 NHL Draft has unexpectedly become available, and the talented younger brother of the team’s star player, Jack Hughes, is still up for grabs. With his exceptional skills, he is highly deserving of being chosen as the fourth overall selection. It is likely that the Devils have a keen interest in other players as well.
Being a general manager in such a situation is undoubtedly challenging. The presence of real-world politics adds to the complexity. If Devils GM Tom Fitzgerald chooses to draft Power over Hughes and it turns out to be a mistake, it could potentially upset their most valuable current asset. Moreover, there is the matter of public perception and the criticism that may arise from “missing out” on a player like Quinn Hughes, who proved to be an exceptional fit for the Wings after they passed on him in 2018.
Alternatively, will Fitzgerald face even harsher criticism for choosing not to select the widely accepted top player due to accusations of favoritism, regardless of fairness? Is he prepared to take that gamble? Juggling these conflicting demands can create an uneasy atmosphere in the court of public opinion. Similar to us, the majority of these individuals are just striving to retain their jobs.
However, we must acknowledge the Devils’ efforts in simulating this situation. They have expressed interest in acquiring Hughes. However, with Power, a highly esteemed player, unexpectedly falling in the draft rankings, other teams are expressing interest as well. Suddenly, the phone rings and it’s Doug Wilson from the San Jose Sharks. He offers the seventh pick and a promising prospect. Now, the Devils face a dilemma. Can they seize this opportunity and still secure Power? Is the potential of the prospect substantial enough to take the risk? Their decision could potentially halt Power’s decline in the draft.
After considering the two teams ahead, the decision is made to go with Hughes as the pick.
Columbus could be put into a bind
Currently, the Columbus Blue Jackets find themselves fixed on the prospect of obtaining Power at the 5th position.
Last year, Blue Jackets GM Jarmo Kekäläinen made an interesting move by selecting a relatively unknown 19-year-old at pick No. 21. In 2016, he also made a memorable decision by choosing Pierre-Luc Dubois over Jesse Puljujärvi at No. 3. Out of his eight drafts, Kekäläinen has only made one other top 10 selection, which turned out to be a successful pick with Zach Werenski at No. 8 in 2015.
To be honest, Kekäläinen’s achievements are not relevant to us. What truly concerns us is his erratic behavior regarding the draft card.
However, to complete our range of influences, let’s consider a scenario where the Columbus GM goes against the grain and chooses to prioritize drafting based on the team’s needs. The Blue Jackets are in dire need of additional centers, and this becomes even more crucial if Max Domi is selected by the Seattle team in the upcoming expansion draft on Wednesday.
McTavish and either Cole Sillinger or Chaz Lucius are the remaining options for them. Regardless of which player gets chosen, Power is still available for the Red Wings at the 6th position.
Conclusion: 2021 NHL Draft predictions are messy
I want to emphasize that this is not a mock draft. It is highly unlikely for Power to fall to No. 6.
However, it’s not completely out of the realm of possibility. Every year, major sports are shaken up by surprising draft-day events. Despite our attempts to convince ourselves that there is some level of predictability, the reality is probably far from it.
What we do know is that the player at No.1 in the draft is the only one everyone agrees on. This should provide some degree of certainty. However, since the team with the first pick is unlikely to go with the consensus choice, it creates some uncertainty and disrupts the established structure.
Anticipate chaos and surprising moments, yet rest assured that you will have an abundance of enjoyment.
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