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So, you have wagered on Lucas Raymond’s victory in the Calder Trophy.
Now what?
To begin with, give yourself a round of applause. You’ve made a smart choice from the start. Raymond, a talented 19-year-old Swedish winger, has swiftly emerged as the clear frontrunner for the Calder Trophy, the prestigious award bestowed upon the NHL’s most outstanding rookie of the year.
However, despite the fierce competition trailing closely behind (which we will discuss later), Raymond seems to have a firm grasp on the award and it would take a significant setback for him to lose it.
Now, we will examine the portion of the Michigan sports betting market that the rising star has captured, the changes in betting lines, and how all of this will impact the Detroit Red Wings and their season-long chances.
First, some perspective on Lucas Raymond
Raymond went into Thursday night’s match against the Vegas Golden Knights with a total of 18 points, consisting of seven goals and 11 assists, achieved within 18 games.
Heading into Wednesday, the top line of the Red Wings, consisting of Raymond, Dylan Larkin, and Tyler Bertuzzi, ranked fourth among all NHL lines in expected goals-for per 60 minutes. This statistic indicates Raymond’s potential to maintain his impressive performance.
In addition, it’s worth noting that this pace matches or exceeds that of every recipient of the award since 2008, apart from Elias Pettersson of the Vancouver Canucks (2018-19 season), who managed to accumulate 19 points in 18 games.
Isn’t it impressive? It becomes even more impressive when you consider the context.
Artemi Panarin, a Russian forward, earned the award in 2015-16 after completing three successful seasons in the KHL. In his final season, he maintained an impressive average of over a point per game. Similarly, Kirill Kaprizov from Minnesota achieved a comparable journey. He became a full-time player in the KHL and recorded 42 points in 49 games during the 2016-17 season. At the age of 24, he recently received his Calder award during the previous summer.
Mathew Barzal from the Islanders earned the award during the 2017-18 season, while Cale Makar achieved the same feat in the 2019-20 season, both during their draft-plus-3 years. On the other hand, Raymond is making a significant impact on the league during his draft-plus-2 year. It is worth noting that Auston Matthews, the center for Toronto, had a modest performance with only 13 points in his first 18 games, despite an impressive four-goal debut at the beginning of his career.
It is important to note that this does not imply that Raymond will surpass the previous winners of the Calder Trophy. However, upon further examination of his performance, it becomes evident that we may be witnessing the emergence of a future star.
Calder Trophy odds update
While those who placed a bet on Raymond to win the Calder Trophy are probably thrilled with these results, it might make oddsmakers of Michigan sportsbooks a bit uneasy, especially considering that some had offered odds as high as +3400 for Raymond before the season started.
Sportsbooks are increasingly burdened by Raymond, as his odds decline while his handle and ticket percentage continue to rise.
According to BetMGM Sportsbook data on November 11, Raymond held a ticket percentage of 36.5% and a handle percentage of 38.8%, with his odds at +325. As of this week, Raymond’s odds have decreased to +250 on BetMGM. Additionally, he has scored four points in his last three games leading up to Wednesday. Furthermore, Raymond now possesses 38% of the ticket percentage and 44.3% of the handle.
Challengers to Raymond and the Calder Trophy
Additionally, within the previous week, Trevor Zegras, forward for the Anaheim Ducks, has been performing exceptionally well. Zegras impressively accumulated a total of five points (comprising four goals and one assist) in his last two games leading up to Wednesday, coinciding with the release of the latest data by BetMGM.
Although Zegras’ odds on BetMGM have only increased slightly from +450 to +500 in the past week, they have shown improvement on DraftKings Sportsbook, where he is now listed at +350 compared to Raymond’s +250. It will be intriguing to monitor the data for Zegras in the coming week, as there hasn’t been a significant increase in wagers placed on him and he currently holds just 4.1% of the BetMGM handle.
Moritz Seider, Raymond’s teammate in the Red Wings, remains present in the meantime.
In 18 games, the sole rookie trailing Raymond in points is the German defenseman, standing tall at 6-foot-4. He has contributed 13 points (consisting of two goals and 11 assists) so far.
Seider’s performance as a defenseman could be deemed more commendable than Raymond’s achievements as a forward. However, considering the recent point trends among talented young defensemen, it can be argued that Seider is not as disadvantaged as initially perceived.
Seider has the potential to be a strong contender for the Calder Trophy in the upcoming year. However, his current lack of scoring is hindering his chances. On the other hand, Raymond’s impressive performance, combined with his ability to create incredible highlights and score crucial goals, firmly positions him as the frontrunner for the league’s top rookie by the end of the season.
