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Don’t get too cute filling out your March Madness bracket
Selecting the 15-2 upset can provide amusement and an opportunity for boasting, but it is essential to choose the champion in order to have a realistic chance of winning, considering the tiered point systems in most bracket pools.
Despite the tournament’s reputation for madness, it is usually one of the strongest teams that ultimately emerges as the winner, cutting down the nets in celebration.
Since the expansion of the field to 64 teams in 1985, No. 1 seeds have emerged as champions in 64% (23) of the tournaments. Notably, this includes the previous four champions and seven out of the last nine.
During that period, 25% (nine) of the champions were classified as either 2 or 3 seeds.
The top seeds hold a strong presence in the Final Four, with No. 1s comprising 40.9% (59 out of 144) of the teams. No. 2 seeds constitute 20.8% (30) of the Final Four, while 3s (17) and 4s (13) collectively account for another 20.8%.
Although five 11-seeded teams have qualified for the Final Four, no team seeded higher than 11 has accomplished this feat.
The person who lacks knowledge about basketball winning is not due to their selection based on animal mascots or color. It is highly probable that their success is attributed to consistently choosing the better seeded team, which tends to result in a higher winning rate.
If you really want to go wild early on, make sure that some of the top contenders survive the chaos in your bracket.
However, it’s important to note that you shouldn’t blindly follow the favorites. It’s crucial to strategically choose some upsets, as this can give you an edge over others. Throughout tournament history, all four No. 1 seeds have only advanced to the Final Four once.
I never claimed that this would be a simple task.
The 12 seed upset is a real thing
It’s essentially true that a 12 seed upsetting a 5 seed seems to happen every year.
In the previous 10 tournaments, a total of 12 seeds emerged victorious in the first round on 16 occasions, while they have accomplished this feat 51 times in total. This indicates that, on average, at least one 12 seed team achieves a first-round victory every year.
However, if you choose all 12 seeds to win, chances are high that you will end up losing. Therefore, you must identify the correct one to increase your chances of success.
Fortunately, not watching this game is unlikely to ruin your bracket. Historically, five seeds rarely progress far in the tournament, with only nine of them ever reaching the Elite 8. In fact, only two 12 seeds have managed to achieve this feat.
You are welcome to embrace a small amount of risk in Round 1, but refrain from prolonging Cinderella’s presence.
BracketResearch has provided the historical breakdown of each first-round matchup, in order to expand our understanding.
- 1 vs. 16: 143-1
- 2 vs. 15: 135-9
- 3 vs. 14: 122-22
- 4 vs. 13: 113-31
- 5 vs. 12: 93-51
- 6 vs. 11: 90-54
- 7 vs. 10: 87-57
- 8 vs. 9: 70-74
First Four teams have had success
In 2011, the NCAA Tournament grew to include 68 teams, introducing four additional games preceding the customary opening weekend.
In this exercise, we’ll exclude the two games involving 16 seeds who are expected to be easily defeated by the top seed. Let’s not attempt to replicate the extraordinary success of UMBC. It’s simply not worth the effort.
However, the remaining two games feature the last four teams to secure at-large bids. Typically, these teams are seeded as 11th seeds, and they have experienced considerable success upon entering the main tournament.
In nine out of the ten tournaments since the expansion, at least one team from the First Four has managed to win an additional game. The only time this trend was broken was in 2019, when both Arizona St. and Belmont were eliminated in the Round of 64. However, UCLA rectified this setback in 2021 by advancing to the Final Four.
In 2011, VCU became the first team from the First Four to advance to the Final Four. Similarly, the Bruins accomplished this feat, making them the second team to do so.
The Sweet 16 was reached by three additional First Four teams: La Salle in 2013, Tennessee in 2014, and Syracuse in 2018. Furthermore, four other teams managed to secure victory in the Round of 64.
Teams from the First Four that are selected at-large always present an intriguing scenario. They could either be a mid-major team that had a remarkable season but fell short in their conference tournament (like Wyoming), or a team from a power conference that has faced challenges in maintaining a steady performance (such as Indiana, Notre Dame, and Rutgers).
It is evident that they pose a threat, therefore, do not disregard them. Alternatively, it would be wiser to complete your bracket after the conclusion of those initial games.
However, it is important to note that in the history of the tournament, there has never been a year in which two First Four teams have won a game in the main draw.
Conference strength matters
The 2021 championship sparked a significant debate around Gonzaga’s seemingly effortless conference schedule and whether it posed a disadvantage to the team.
In that game, Baylor from the Big 12 conference dominated Gonzaga, and it’s important to note that the Big 12 conference held the highest ranking according to the RPI.
So does conference matter?
Kind of. Yeah.
Out of the last two decades, the champion has emerged from a conference that held the top or second rank in the RPI on 13 occasions. Additionally, on five occasions, the champion’s conference was placed third or fourth in the rankings.
The exceptional cases are the years 2014 and 2004, during which Connecticut emerged as the champions. In 2004, Connecticut claimed the title following a less successful year for the typically dominant Big East conference, which was ranked sixth among all conferences. The 2014 victory is somewhat unconventional for the purpose of this discussion, as the Huskies emerged from the American conference, which was ranked eighth. Moreover, UConn entered the tournament as a 7 seed, having competed in the Big East the previous year. There were a lot of peculiar circumstances surrounding their success in that particular year.
In most cases, teams from the top two conferences tend to win more frequently. As the regular season nears its end this year, the Big 12 is currently leading, with the SEC, Big East, and Big Ten closely following behind.
Despite narrowly trailing the ACC, the West Coast Conference, where top-ranked Gonzaga is based, claims the eighth position.
