March Madness wouldn’t exist if it weren’t for the victory of underdogs. While the NCAA Tournament would still be in existence, the element of madness would be absent. It would simply be a series of basketball games taking place in the month of March.
In preparation for the 2025 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, we set out to explore the untapped potential of underdogs. Our objective was to monitor the potential winnings of bettors who placed moneyline bets on each underdog team throughout the tournament.
Surprisingly, the outcome was quite significant. Despite placing mere $10 hypothetical bets, our tracker managed to conclude the tournament with a notable profit of $129.52.
Despite having an overall tournament record of 23-40, we express our gratitude to Fairleigh Dickinson, Princeton, and Florida Atlantic.
The exercise resembled the Detroit Lions moneyline tracker we experimented with last autumn, posing the same inquiry: Can the larger gains from occasional victories surpass the losses incurred from more frequent defeats, even if they outnumber the wins?
Continuing reading to access the complete findings and learn about our approach.
Picking underdogs in March Madness
If you are new to this article, let me begin by establishing the criteria for considering a team as an underdog when placing bets on March Madness.
I opted for the betting underdog, acknowledging that it may not necessarily be the seeded underdog. Given that we are now in the third year of legalized online sports betting in Michigan, I believe we can easily differentiate between the two without any significant confusion.
I made this decision primarily because I was consistently getting favorable odds in each matchup. Additionally, it’s difficult to claim “that was unexpected” when a team, despite being the 10 seed, emerged victorious as a -125 favorite. In truth, their victory was anticipated.
In order to keep track of our progress, we decided to place a theoretical $10 wager on every game. I recorded the odds at the moment the bet was placed.
We began with Thursday’s games, excluding any First Four games.
I must admit, I did engage in this activity, but at a rate of $1 per bet. Additionally, I placed my bets at SI Sportsbook MI solely because that happened to be the platform where I had funds available.
Continue reading to discover the outcome of each round of the tournament.
Betting the underdog in the men’s national title game
Regardless of the outcome of Monday night’s final, this experiment has proven to be successful. However, the last game holds significant importance.
- Lost $10 betting on the San Diego State vs. UConn game with odds of +290.
Final Four full of underdogs
The article concludes with a fitting ending as the Final Four teams, which have all contributed significantly to the overall competition, finally come face-to-face with one another, including the formidable UConn.
- I lost $10 on the Florida Atlantic vs. San Diego State game, with Florida Atlantic being the underdog at +110 odds.
- I lost $10 on the Miami vs. UConn game, where Miami was priced at +195.
Elite 8 underdogs
After a surprising performance by the underdogs in the Sweet 16, the Elite 8 lineup has been determined. This unexpected turn of events allowed us to earn a total of $133.52 leading up to that weekend.
Continue scrolling to find the outcomes of the Sweet 16 and the initial rounds of the tournament.
- I won $11 when Florida Atlantic had odds of +110 against Kansas State.
- I lost $10 on the Gonzaga vs. UConn game with Gonzaga having odds of +110.
- I won $10 by betting on San Diego State with odds of +100 against Creighton.
- I won $15 betting on the Miami vs. Texas match with Miami having odds of +150.
Betting March Madness underdogs in the Sweet 16
Thanks to Fairleigh Dickinson and Princeton, we made a profit of $74.02 by the end of the second weekend. If you want to see the complete outcomes of the first weekend, please continue scrolling.
The Sweet 16 holds significant importance due to the following factors:
- I won $10 by betting on Kansas State with a +100 odds against Michigan State.
- Bet on UConn -140 vs. Arkansas — Lost $10
- Florida Atlantic was victorious with odds of +195 against Tennessee, resulting in a $19.50 win.
- I won $10 by betting on Gonzaga with odds of +100 against UCLA.
- I won $25 by betting on San Diego State at +250 odds against Alabama.
- I won $25 betting on the Miami vs. Houston game with Miami as the underdog at +250 odds.
- Princeton lost $10 in their game against Creighton, with a score of +375 vs. Creighton.
- Xavier was the underdog at +160 against Texas, but unfortunately, they lost the game and $10.
Underdog results from the second round of the NCAA Tournament
All these wagers were once more made at SI Sportsbook.
- Lost $10 on the Furman vs. San Diego State game at +195 odds.
- I won $13 by betting on Tennessee with odds of +130 against Duke.
- I won $15 by betting on Arkansas with odds of +150 against Kansas.
- Princeton’s odds of winning against Missouri are +230, resulting in a $23 win.
- I lost $10 on the Auburn vs. Houston game with Auburn having odds of +195.
- I lost $10 on the Penn State vs. Texas game where Penn State had odds of +195.
- I lost $10 betting on the Northwestern team with odds of +290 against UCLA.
- Maryland vs. Alabama: Lost $10 (odds +290)
- Bet on Pittsburgh at +180 odds against Xavier and lost $10.
- I won $10 by betting on Kansas State with odds of +100 against Kentucky.
- I won $13 by betting on Michigan State with odds of +130 against Marquette.
- The St. Mary’s vs. UConn game resulted in a loss of $10, with St. Mary’s being the underdog at +140.
- I won $9.52 by betting on Creighton at -105 against Baylor.
- I lost $10 on the Fairleigh Dickinson vs. Florida Atlantic game, with Fairleigh Dickinson having odds of +550.
- I won $10 with the Miami vs. Indiana game, with Miami being favored at +100.
- I lost $10 on the TCU +170 vs. Gonzaga game.
Despite starting strong, the underdogs ended up with a 3-5 record and an increase of $1.
Sunday’s games saw an even split for the underdogs, with a 4-4 record overall. Despite most of the games being closely contested on the moneyline, Creighton defied the odds and managed to be an underdog with -105 odds. Surprisingly, this resulted in a profit of $2.52, despite only achieving a .500 record.
The total amount is now $74.02 higher, which brings it to a range of 15-33.
Betting on the first round of the NCAA Tournament
All of the bets listed below were placed on Monday, March 13th, at SI Sportsbook, according to the provided odds.
- I won $12 by betting on Maryland at +120 against West Virginia.
- Furman’s odds of +195 against Virginia resulted in a win of $19.50.
- I won $10 on the Missouri vs. Utah State game, with Missouri being +100.
- Howard was given odds of +1400 in their matchup against Kansas. Unfortunately, they ended up losing the game and incurred a loss of $10.
- I lost $10 betting on the Charleston +180 vs. San Diego State matchup.
- Princeton’s odds were +700 against Arizona, resulting in a $70 win.
- Lost $10 on the Illinois vs. Arkansas game with Illinois listed as +120.
- Iowa -100 vs. Auburn — Lost $10.
- Bet on Oral Roberts and lost $10 against Duke.
- Bet on Texas vs. Colgate – Lost $10
- I lost $10 on the Boise State vs. Northwestern game, with Boise State being the underdog at +100.
- The bet on the Northern Kentucky vs. Houston game resulted in a loss of $10.
- Lost $10 on the Louisiana vs. Tennessee game with odds of +425.
- I won $13 by choosing Penn State with odds of +130 over Texas A&M.
- I lost $10 on the UNC Asheville vs. UCLA game, with UNC Asheville being the underdog at +1100 odds.
- Bet on Texas A&M Corpus Christi with odds of +2500 against Alabama and lost $10.
- Lost $10 on the USC vs. Michigan State game, where USC was the underdog with odds of +110.
- I lost $10 on the Kennesaw State vs. Xavier game, as Kennesaw State had +475 odds.
- I lost $10 on the UC Santa Barbara vs. Baylor game, with UC Santa Barbara having odds of +475.
- VCU lost $10 in their match against St. Mary’s, with odds of +150.
- I lost $10 on the Vermont vs. Marquette game, where Vermont was +475.
- Iona, with odds of +325, faced UConn and unfortunately lost, resulting in a $10 loss.
- The NC State vs. Creighton game resulted in a loss of $10 for NC State at odds of +180.
- Kentucky -150 vs. Providence — Lost $10
- Lost $10 on the Grand Canyon vs. Gonzaga game with a +900 point spread.
- Drake -120 vs. Miami — Latest odds: Drake Lost $10
- I won $11 on the Florida Atlantic vs. Memphis game with Florida Atlantic having odds of +110.
- I lost $10 on the Montana State vs. Kansas State game, where Montana State had odds of +290.
- I lost $10 on the Kent State vs. Indiana game with Kent State as the underdog at +160 odds.
- I won $15 by betting on Pittsburgh with odds of +150 against Iowa State.
- Bet on Fairleigh Dickinson at +1600 odds and won $160.
- Lost $10 on the Arizona State vs. TCU game with Arizona State having odds of +195.
Following Thursday’s matches, the underdogs had a record of 5-11 against the moneyline, but were still ahead due to Princeton’s victory over Arizona.
They had a worse performance on Friday, with a 3-13 record overall. However, Fairleigh Dickinson’s remarkable upset against Purdue alone would have brought in substantial profits.
Despite being underdogs, they were able to accumulate a profit of $70.50 as they entered the second round with a record of 8-24.
