Jump to the main content
As Michigan’s sports betting industry approaches its second-year mark, it seems to have reached a point of stabilization, showing little growth or decline.
In recent months, there has been a stabilization in year-over-year handle. Playinmichigan foresees this trend extending into 2025, with a possibility of a slight decline in Year 3.
Michigan sports betting 2025 projections
According to Playinmichigan’s projection, the estimated sports betting handle for Michigan in 2025 will exceed $4.6 billion. Although there are two more months remaining to contribute to the total for 2022, it is expected to fall slightly below $4.8 billion based on current progress.
Sports betting in Michigan has experienced a decline of roughly 3% in terms of bets placed, which is anticipated to result in a corresponding decrease in operator revenue of approximately $10 million.
The majority of the anticipated decrease in handle and revenue is expected to occur during the first half of 2025. In January 2022, the state achieved a record-breaking sports betting month with a handle of $532.7 million. According to Playinmichigan’s estimations, the handle for January 2025 is projected to be approximately $480 million.
From August to December, the projected values are expected to be higher compared to the corresponding months in 2022. However, each month up until July 2025 is projected to have lower values. It is important to mention that the projections for November and December 2022 are also included.
What factors are leading to a drop in Michigan sports betting?
Michigan’s sports betting market has reached a plateau, despite the occasional dips.
The situation observed this autumn is not merely a prediction, but an actual occurrence. In September 2022, the overall handle was lower compared to the previous year, indicating a slight decline of approximately 1%. This decrease represents the first instance of a year-on-year drop in the state.
In October 2022, there was a slight improvement compared to 2021, with an increase of approximately 1.4%.
While discretionary spending remains low and inflation continues to burden individuals’ finances not only in Michigan but across the nation, this occurrence could potentially be seen as a temporary setback. Nonetheless, there are additional contributing factors suggesting that the decrease in spending is not solely driven by economic pressures.
In 2022, Michigan is projected to have a per capita handle of $476, which is significantly lower than other comparable markets. While Pennsylvania ($554) also stands out in this regard, it still surpasses Michigan’s performance. For instance, neighboring Illinois is on track to reach a per capita handle of $767.
At this moment, the betting per person in Michigan is not sufficient enough to drive significant market growth in its third year.
Number of online sportsbook skins maxed out
Michigan bettors are not enticed by the prospect of a new online sportsbook, even though the state has a limit of 15 online sportsbook skins and both SI Sportsbook and Eagle Casino & Sports have already been established in September and April, respectively.
At launch, there were a total of 10 live sportsbooks, and this number increased to 14 by mid-2021. In January 2021, the prominent sports betting platforms such as FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, and Caesars went live in Michigan.
Although it resulted in a highly successful launch, it limits the opportunities for customers to open fresh accounts and benefit from new welcome bonuses in Year 3.
How does Michigan sports betting compare to other states?
However, the plateau is not limited to Michigan alone.
In October, sports betting markets across the nation mirrored Michigan’s year-over-year trend. The number of states experiencing growth in October 2021 was almost equal to those witnessing a decline.
The percentage of Pennsylvania’s increase was 3%, while Indiana experienced a decrease of 3%.
Nearly all of the 19% decline in New Jersey’s market can be attributed to the emergence of the newer legal market in New York.
However, Illinois stands apart from the norm as it experienced a notable increase of 23% in October, surpassing $1 billion for the month. In terms of its timeline, Illinois slightly differs from Michigan. Although both states introduced legal sports betting in March 2020, online sports betting was permitted in Illinois in June 2020.
However, it is not particularly uncommon for Michigan sports betting to reach a plateau as it enters its third year.
