This week, bettors of Michigan college football are venturing into uncharted territory.
After a game where they failed to cover the spread, the undefeated Wolverines (4-0) now have a betting line that appears favorable to both teams.
The nation’s fourth-ranked team, despite a close victory of 34-27 against Maryland with a -17 spread, is now heading to Iowa on Saturday as the underdog, with DraftKings Sportsbook MI giving them their lowest favored status of the year.
There is a lot of mystery surrounding the point spread for a Michigan team that convincingly defeated Iowa 42-3 in last year’s Big Ten championship.
According to Johnny Avello, the director of race and sportsbook operations for DraftKings, this week’s matchup between Michigan and Iowa is intriguing. Iowa’s offense ranks near the bottom in college football, while their defense is formidable. Initially, one might consider betting on Iowa due to the points they are given. However, their inability to effectively pass the ball raises doubts. If Iowa falls behind early, it is unlikely that they will be able to stage a comeback, resulting in a final score of 24-10 or 21-10 in favor of Michigan.
Iowa defense presents new challenge for Michigan
Avello’s prediction closely aligns with the spread, offering an intriguing perspective for Michigan bettors.
The line implies that Michigan will face a tougher challenge against Iowa compared to how effortlessly other highly-ranked teams defeat their opponents.
According to Avello, Michigan’s inability to score a significant victory against Maryland was advantageous for us. It turned out to be our most successful bet of the day, with the Michigan game being our second highest wager (behind USC’s close victory over Oregon State in prime time). The majority of gamblers, over 90% at DraftKings and Caesars Sportsbook, heavily favored Michigan to cover the spread. Although there was never a sense that Michigan would lose the game, their failure to cover the spread worked out favorably for us.
The outcome of Michigan’s performance in Iowa, whether it results in a victory or a successful cover, hinges on the performance of certain crucial players.
The upcoming game will present Wolverines quarterback J.J. McCarthy with his toughest defensive challenge thus far in the season. McCarthy’s performance in the previous game against Maryland was inconsistent, but he managed to complete 220 passing yards and score two touchdowns.
Once again, tight end Luke Schoonmaker will be relied upon to make significant gains in receiving yards. In the previous week, he showcased his ability by accumulating 72 yards from seven receptions and scoring an early touchdown.
Meanwhile, Michigan’s star player, Blake Corum, remains an impressive force on the field. In the previous week, he showcased his talent by amassing an impressive 243 yards on 30 carries, resulting in two touchdowns. Corum is determined to be the backbone of the team and Michigan plans to heavily rely on his skills, unless Iowa manages to neutralize his impact.
If Iowa opts to strategically pressure the quarterback, it could create opportunities for McCarthy to excel in the passing game.
Michigan vs. Iowa expected to be low scoring
The moneyline and spread will be influenced by Michigan’s top players, whereas the Iowa offense may heavily influence the over-under total. It is worth noting that none of Iowa’s game totals have exceeded 37 points.
Avello observed that the game is likely to have a low-scoring outcome.
The question is, in what manner should Michigan score their points? And what about Iowa, a team known for playing a conservative, close to the vest style of game?
The Hawkeyes have managed to score a mere total of seven points across two different games this season. Surprisingly, they emerged victorious in one of those games, with a score of 7-3 against South Dakota State. This win was primarily attributed to a field goal and two safeties, showcasing the unexpected prominence of the safety position as their main offensive weapon.
In addition to their 3-1 record, the Hawkeyes suffered a 10-7 loss against Iowa State.
Over the past few weeks, they have discovered their offensive rhythm, scoring 27 points in consecutive wins. Admittedly, the opponents weren’t exceptionally strong, but their recent performances showcased a swifter tempo in the offense.
Iowa is now facing Michigan’s defense, which holds the fourth rank in the country, allowing only 244.8 yards per game.
Those who bet on the over will be wishing for Michigan to establish a significant lead early on, which would encourage Iowa to play at a faster pace. This would require them to pass the ball more frequently, either to score more points or to stop the clock by throwing incomplete passes. The outcome of the first two or three possessions holds great significance for these bets.
Michigan not viewed as equal to Alabama, Georgia or Ohio State
According to Avello, Michigan is not only focused on securing a victory, but also faces greater consequences compared to other top-ranked teams.
According to Avello, Michigan has more at stake compared to the highly ranked teams of Georgia, Alabama, and Ohio State.
Avello pointed out that the identity of the fourth team in the group deciding the national championship is uncertain. Currently, Michigan appears to be secure in that position. Avello doubts that Clemson and USC, the teams trailing behind Michigan, possess the necessary capabilities to break into the top four at the moment.
However, it is notable that teams such as Georgia, Alabama, or Ohio State rarely experience significant drops in rankings. Even in the event of a loss, they might only fall a few places. On the other hand, if Michigan were to lose against Iowa, it is highly likely that they would experience a significant drop of eight spots. It appears that Michigan does not hold the same level of esteem as these other teams, for reasons unknown.
In order for Michigan to keep their College Football Playoff aspirations alive, they must maintain an undefeated record in the near future. Additionally, they need to accomplish either of the following tasks: secure a victory against Ohio State on November 26th while playing away, or witness a loss by either Alabama or Georgia.
Alabama narrowly escaped with a victory in the early season match against Texas, securing a 20-19 win. Georgia appears to be operating like a well-oiled machine. On October 29th, Ohio State will face a challenging obstacle as it goes head-to-head with Penn State.
This week, all three teams are favored by a minimum of three scores at Michigan sportsbooks.
The teams trailing fourth-ranked Michigan do not appear to pose an immediate threat to them.
Clemson, ranked No. 5, emerged victorious in an exhilarating double-overtime clash against Wake Forest in their previous game, securing a 51-45 win. This week, Clemson faces a challenging matchup at home against the 10th-ranked North Carolina State, which could put their skills to the test.
Despite USC’s continued ascent in the rankings, their performance last week did not reflect that of a top 5 team. Nevertheless, the Trojans managed to secure a No. 6 ranking after a lackluster 17-14 victory against Oregon State. As they prepare to face Arizona State, they are listed as the upcoming opponent.
