On Saturday, under the lights at the Big House, Michigan and Michigan State will come face to face.
The bitter rivals come into the game with contrasting circumstances, resulting in the Wolverines being heavily favored by three touchdowns. However, rivalry games often bring surprises, and this particular match, taking place on a Halloween weekend under the cover of night, has the potential for some unusual occurrences.
To get insights about the anticipated Saturday night event, we interviewed experts representing both sides of the rivalry. Our experts include Matt Sheehan, the host of the Locked On Spartans Podcast, and Brandon Justice, a senior editor specializing in Michigan coverage at Rivals.
In order to introduce a neutral party, Playinmichigan also engaged in a conversation with Johnny Avello, the Director of Sportsbook Operations at DraftKings.
How do Michigan and Michigan State fans feel heading into rivalry week?
Prior to inquiring about a detailed analysis of the game, we desired to gauge the overall perspective and mentality of the fans supporting each team.
We had our own thoughts, but Sheehan and Justice have a strong connection to their respective fanbases.
Justice
Michigan fans have an abundance of confidence, which is not surprising considering the impressive records and trajectories of both teams. However, experienced fans who have witnessed this rivalry year after year know better than to get their hopes up. They understand that nothing is guaranteed in this game.
Sheehan
“This 3-4 start has the fanbase all over the place, but the majority is this — not expecting a win but would be lying to themselves if they said there isn’t a glimmer of hope. If they lost (the Oct. 15) game against Wisconsin — and the coaching staff tried its best to do so — there would be no hope at all. But, we saw everything we hoped to see this season in that game. Jayden Reed and Keon Coleman looking like Sunday talent. The defense looking Not Horrific with Xavier Henderson, Jacob Slade and Simeon Barrow back in the mix. Yes, Wisconsin is not a good team, but we finally saw what we’ve been hoping to see this season. And, in a game against a team where 10 of the last 14 wins have gone to the Spartans, the track record is there to never think the Spartans are completely out of it, even in our worst years and their best years.”
Keys to a Michigan victory over Michigan State
And now, let’s focus on the crucial factors for the game.
If certain conditions are met, Michigan will emerge victorious.
Justice
In 2022, Michigan is clearly superior to MSU in every aspect. According to ESPN’s SP+ rankings, Michigan is ranked as the No. 4 team in the country, a significant 20-point difference compared to Michigan State’s ranking at No. 52. Michigan excels in offense, defense, and special teams, all of which place them in the top 10 teams, while MSU lags behind at 41st, 58th, and 125th, respectively. With such a significant advantage, Michigan should not lose as a 20-plus point favorite at home, although that’s what happened in the 2020 game. Jim Harbaugh, in his weekly press conference, emphasized that records should be disregarded. However, the only way I see the Spartans pulling off an upset is if McCarthy and his team make numerous mistakes. This was a major concern against Penn State, as they had a high turnover rate. Despite this, it’s worth noting that McCarthy’s interception was a result of a ball bouncing off two helmets before landing in a defender’s hands, making it difficult to blame the quarterback. Nonetheless, McCarthy has had a few fumbles this season, although Michigan has been fortunate enough to recover all of them. It is crucial for him to avoid making these mistakes on Saturday.
Sheehan
“They pass the ball. Look, I get it, their offensive line is probably the best in the nation and that run game has road grated teams. But MSU might be able to stop the run a little bit and make this game muddy in that regard. Again, I said might. Now it is certain — unless your quarterback’s name is Graham Mertz — that you can have a career day against this MSU secondary through the air. So if the playbook is truly open for Michigan and they utilize JJ McCarthy, I think they put up the points needed to win. Oh and MSU’s offense can’t generate any semblance of a run game. That, too.”
Keys to a Michigan State victory over Michigan
On the other hand, Michigan State will emerge victorious if …
Sheehan
On Sundays, the players give an outstanding performance. We’re counting on Jayden Reed and Keon Coleman to replicate their exceptional performance in the passing game, and it would be great if they could involve tight end Daniel Barker more than just three times on Saturday. Defensively, it would be a victory if Jacoby Windmon, who has returned to his linebacker position, can effectively stop the run and limit one option in pass coverage. Additionally, Bryce Baringer, who has consistently performed well throughout the season, should continue to excel at punting the ball. It’s no wonder he’s expected to play on Sundays next year.
I lack confidence in the running game of MSU’s offense and have even less faith in their passing defense. However, if the passing game can showcase its NFL talent and the defense can minimize the impact, there might be a chance.
Justice
MSU may need to adopt Indiana’s offensive strategy against U-M, but improve upon it. However, I have doubts about whether MSU has the personnel to effectively run an Air Raid, up-tempo offense. Nonetheless, in their win last year, the Spartans’ ability to control the tempo was the key factor that turned the game around when U-M seemed to be dominating. Indiana demonstrated on tape how tempo can disrupt the Wolverine defense, but U-M’s defensive coordinator made adjustments at halftime and shut down the Hoosiers in the second half. Nevertheless, the MSU offense, led by WR Jayden Reed, poses a greater challenge than IU, despite their struggles this season. If QB Payton Thorne can replicate his performance from last season and effectively execute an up-tempo offense, it will counter Michigan’s defensive strategy and expose their weakness in coverage by linebackers. Michigan’s highest-graded linebacker in coverage, Junior Colson, ranks 122nd among qualifying linebackers according to PFF. Defensively, MSU doesn’t have many answers on paper. Their strength lies in the defensive line, which should keep Michigan on their toes, but it’s not as good as PSU’s, who U-M embarrassed two weeks ago by rushing for over 400 yards. On paper, the Spartans don’t stand a chance of winning. However, once again, we must set aside the statistics, records, and season performance. On Saturday night, it’s simply Michigan versus Michigan State, with the coveted Paul Bunyan trophy on the line. Anything can happen.
Is the Michigan vs. Michigan State spread fair?
When we initially sought out the answer to this question, the number was 23.5. However, it has now settled at either 21 or 22.
Sheehan
“If it wasn’t for that Wisconsin game, I would say ‘yeah that sounds about right’ as MSU was riding an ugly four-game losing streak. But the Spartans getting back Xavier Henderson and Jacob Slade on defense and seeing Keon Coleman and Jayden Reed be the receivers we thought they could be against the Badgers gave us all a glimmer of hope. HOWEVER, I’m not saying it should be a pick ’em or anything. I just figured the spread would be in that 16-18 point range after we (finally) saw positive signs from MSU in its latest game. With that said, I still don’t love either side of this spread because as much as I can see MSU keeping this somewhat close, I can just as easily see UM trying to blow the doors off of MSU and extract revenge from the pain brought to the Wolverines the last two seasons.”
Justice
I’m not certain of Vegas’ prediction until the line surpasses a key number, which is currently fluctuating between 21.5 and 23.5. If it goes beyond 23.5, I believe U-M has the potential to win by at least 30 points. Conversely, if it drops to 20.5, it suggests a close game according to oddsmakers. Personally, based on various projection models and considering Michigan’s home advantage, I believe Michigan is favored by approximately 22 to 23 points. Therefore, I believe the current line is fairly accurate and will likely settle around 22.5, leaving bettors uncertain of their bets.
Michigan vs. Michigan State prediction
These two rivals surprisingly made eerily similar predictions despite being on opposite sides.
Justice extensively explained his reasoning, thus he concluded by sending a final score: Michigan 42, MSU 17.
Sheehan had a bit more to add:
Either Michigan State will win by four points, resulting in hearing more inane excuses for the next approximately 365 days, or Michigan will secure a decisive victory. There is no middle ground. Although I wish to be proven wrong, my prediction is Michigan winning with a score of 42 to 21 against MSU.
Michigan vs. Michigan State betting insights from Johnny Avello
As of Tuesday afternoon, the spread currently stands at 22.5 points, which is similar to the 21.5-point spread the Spartans encountered last year when they traveled to Ann Arbor.
In that particular year, MSU managed to achieve a surprising upset over Michigan with a score of 27-24.
Will college football bettors risk the same outcome happening again this Saturday?
Due to the significant point difference, MSU is currently listed with a moneyline of +1100 for the game, whereas Michigan stands at -2100.
In the past, Mel Tucker has emerged victorious in both encounters against Jim Harbaugh, while the Spartans have triumphed in 10 out of the previous 14 overall meetings.
Avello explained that the current spread in this specific game is atypically high. Consequently, people would typically opt to bet on Michigan State using the money line, assuming they will secure a straightforward victory. Betting on Michigan, on the other hand, is less favored since it requires a substantial wager to yield minimal winnings.
At DraftKings Sportsbook MI, the initial spread was set at 22 points. It then decreased to 21.5 points before rising again to 22.5. Avello is confident that the spread will continue to increase leading up to the weekend. His prediction has already come true as the jump from 21.5 to 22.5 occurred subsequent to this interview.
Avello expressed that the game initially began with a 22-point difference, but has now decreased to 21.5 points. Avello anticipates that the game’s point difference will increase again, potentially before Saturday. Additionally, Avello expects a significant amount of money to be placed on Michigan, favoring their side, as we approach Saturday.
