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Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene, ranked fourth and seventh on MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 list, are expected to make their debut in the major leagues in 2022. The Detroit Tigers had a strong showing in the 2021 All-Rookie second team, with outfielder Akil Baddoo, catcher Eric Haase, and starting pitchers Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal all receiving recognition.
The Tigers have announced their intention to invest in a few free agents this offseason. With manager A.J. Hinch at the helm of this rebuild, there is strong reason to consider this team as a potential breakout candidate for the 2022 season.
However, can this secure them a position in the MLB playoffs? It is undoubtedly premature to determine (or place bets, although all MLB betting options are available here). Nevertheless, we can outline how their rebuilding timeframe aligns with two American League teams that opted for a gradual rebuilding strategy and examine any existing precedents.
Detroit Tigers (present rebuild ongoing)
- The height of the last reconstruction occurred during the 2012 World Series defeat against SF.
- The most recent winning season during the previous rebuild phase occurred in 2016, with a record of 86-75.
- Summary of the Valley: In the span of two seasons, they achieved an impressive total of 64 wins. However, they experienced a disappointing rock-bottom season with only 47 wins. In 2020, their performance was 23-35, and in 2021 they managed to secure a third-place finish with a record of 77-85.
- The number of years since their last playoff appearance is yet to be determined.
To begin, we will examine the journey of the Detroit Tigers leading up to this point.
Following a remarkable four consecutive AL Central titles from 2011 to 2014, the baseball team experienced a disappointing performance in 2015, and their subsequent playoff push in 2016 proved unsuccessful, marking the end of an era for the boys of summer.
Then everything completely fell apart.
After achieving back-to-back seasons with an impressive 64 wins, the 2019 team experienced a significant downfall, ending with only four more wins than the 2003 Tigers (43-119), the worst American League team since the 1916 Philadelphia Athletics (36-117). However, as a result of this disappointing performance, they were granted the opportunity to select Torkelson as the No. 1-overall pick in the 2020 MLB Draft.
In 2019, the Green team secured the No. 5 spot after a successful 2018 season. Additionally, the previous year, their chances of obtaining the first pick were dramatically boosted by Pablo Sandoval’s walk-off homer on the final day of the season. As a result, the Tigers had the opportunity to select Mize with their top pick.
The team’s record of 23-35 in the COVID-19 shortened season somewhat masks the reality that if the season had been the usual 162 games, their win percentage of .397 would have translated to a 64-98 record. However, Hinch’s arrival completely transformed the team, igniting a potential improvement of 13 wins over the course of a full season.
Furthermore, it is worth noting that Detroit managed to significantly improve their performance after a disappointing 9-24 start, achieving a record of 68-61 for the remainder of the season.
And hey, since we’re already talking about Hinch…
Houston Astros
- The height of the previous contending window was reached during the 2005 World Series when they faced a loss against the Chicago White Sox.
- The most recent winning season during the previous period of contention was in 2008, with a record of 86-75.
- Summary of the Valley: The team had a successful run for two seasons, achieving a remarkable 70 wins each. However, they faced a setback for three seasons, experiencing lower performances with 51-56 wins. They ended up securing a fourth-place finish in the AL West. Despite this, they managed to make it to the playoffs once, but unfortunately missed the playoffs in another season. Nevertheless, they made an impressive comeback by reaching the World Series.
- The span of time separating playoff appearances: 10 years.
In 2015, following a decade of playoff absence, the Houston Astros made a significant move by hiring a promising manager named A.J. Hinch.
In that very season, they made it to the postseason, marking a remarkable 16-win progress compared to the previous year. Although they missed the postseason in 2016, they bounced back in 2017 by clinching the World Series championship. In 2019, they experienced a loss in the World Series, but managed to reach the American League Championship Series every year since then (including 2021).
Additional: Betting options for the World Series and season-long MLB bets.
Carlos Correa, the first overall pick in the 2012 draft, proved to be a valuable asset for the team as he led all MLB position players in Wins Above Replacement (7.2) in 2021. Additionally, the team’s second overall pick in the 2015 draft, Alex Bregman, who was obtained as a compensation pick for not signing their 2014 draft pick, showcased his talents by leading the entirety of MLB in WAR (9.0) and securing second place in MVP voting in 2019. Furthermore, the team’s selection of Kyle Tucker with the fifth pick in the same 2015 draft paid off as the 24-year-old outfielder just completed his second full season in the majors with an impressive OPS of .917 and a WAR of 5.7.
Pretty good.
In conclusion, apart from Hinch’s presence, the Tigers and Astros share a significant similarity – their remarkable capability to cultivate exceptional talent through the top of the draft, strengthening their farm systems. With players like Torkelson, Mize, and Greene, both teams anticipate that their steady progress will eventually propel them into becoming formidable contenders.
Chicago White Sox
- The height of the previous contending window was reached when the team secured victory in the 2005 World Series against Houston.
- The most recent successful season within the previous period of competitiveness was in 2012.
- Summary of the team’s journey: Following their victorious World Series win in 2005, the team experienced a decline, with only one playoff appearance in 2008 resulting in a loss in the ALDS. This decline reached its lowest point in 2013 when they finished with a dismal record of 63-99. From 2014 to 2018, they consistently finished fourth. However, their performance hit rock bottom in 2017 with a record of 67-95, followed by an even worse record of 62-100 in 2018. The team then showed signs of improvement, achieving 72 wins in 2019 and a promising 35-25 record in 2020. Their resurgence continued in 2021 with an impressive record of 93-69.
- There is a 12-year gap between playoff appearances.
The White Sox’s rebuilding process was somewhat disorderly, as they endured a staggering 12-year playoff drought, experiencing both highs and lows along the way. While they didn’t face the same level of downfall as Detroit or Houston (having selected third overall in 2014 and 2019), their journey highlighted the potential setbacks of prematurely pushing a team to compete.
In 2016, Chicago had a strong start with a record of 23-10. The team was eager to secure a playoff spot, which would have been their first in eight years. In order to strengthen their rotation for the postseason, the organization made a trade, sending Fernando Tatis, who would later become a 2020 MVP finalist, to San Diego in exchange for James Shields. However, despite their efforts, the team ultimately finished in fourth place, leading to another reset in their strategy.
After an eventful offseason, the team experienced major changes. Prior to the 2017 season, they initiated a fire sale, acquiring promising prospects like Yoan Moncada, Eloy Jimenez, and pitchers Lucas Giolito, Michael Kopech, and Dylan Cease. Additionally, they secured the top international prospect Luis Robert and selected Nick Madrigal as the third overall draft pick. These new additions further enhanced the existing core of Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu, and Carlos Rodon.
In 2017, the Tigers made the decision to trade away some of their talented players in exchange for promising prospects. As a result, they have successfully begun to assemble a strong foundation for their future team. Players like Jeimer Candelario, Isaac Paredes, Jake Rogers, Alex Lange, and Daz Cameron are all expected to contribute to Detroit’s upcoming competitive squad.
Despite the Tigers’ commendable efforts in bolstering their rebuilding through talent obtained in previous trades, they still find themselves lagging two steps behind Chicago in terms of their progress.
The main cause for this is that the Tigers’ farm system has been drained after years of competing. There are no longer any Andersons, Abreus, or Rodons remaining from the challenging times. The sole candidate who could have potentially filled such a position is Nicholas Castellanos. Moreover, the Tigers had to part ways with every possible individual in order to rebuild their farm system.
In conclusion, the Tigers are following a similar path to the White Sox, albeit about two years behind. Both teams experienced two seasons with win totals in the 60s, followed by improvement to achieve win totals in the 70s. If this trend continues, the Tigers could be contenders for the playoffs in 2022, although the White Sox will certainly pose a challenge.
Detroit Tigers (2006)
- The height of the previous contending window was reached during the 1984 World Series when they emerged victorious over San Diego.
- The most recent successful season within the previous period of contention occurred in 1993.
- Summary of the Valley: After enduring a decade of continuous losses, the Valley’s fortunes hit an all-time low in 2003 with a dismal record of 43-119. However, they managed to make a gradual improvement, achieving win totals in the 70s over the next two seasons. Their journey culminated in being the runner-up in the World Series.
- It has been a gap of 19 years since their last playoff appearance.
Now, let’s discuss the 2006 Tigers, which is the final team we will cover here.
Following a period of decline in 2003, the Tigers experienced two consecutive seasons with 72 and 71 victories, respectively. However, they defied expectations in 2006 when they secured a spot in the World Series thanks to Magglio Ordonez’s game-winning home run against Huston Street from the Oakland team during the ALCS.
In 2022, the Tigers will have the same time gap from their 47-win season as the 2006 Tigers had from their record-breaking 43-119 season.
Are you a believer in magic?
If you would be so kind, allow us a moment to reflect: The Tigers’ resurgence in 2006 breathed fresh air into the world of baseball in Detroit. Prior to that, they had not experienced a postseason since 1987.
After some time had passed, they went on to achieve four consecutive division titles, reaching the World Series and the ALCS once again. In their pursuit of one final triumph, they put together a pitching staff that included four Cy Young winners, and there is a possibility of increasing that count if Robbie Ray secures the award this year. This formidable lineup was led by Miguel Cabrera, baseball’s first Triple Crown winner since 1967.
The 2014 postseason was a crescendo that built up to disappointment for the Tigers. Despite fielding a formidable pitching lineup of Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and David Price against the Baltimore Orioles, they failed to secure a single victory. Adding to their frustration, their division rivals, the Kansas City Royals, not only clinched the AL pennant that year but also went on to win the 2015 World Series.
Franchise stars and legends were gradually transferred to different teams. Verlander achieved his championship win with Houston in 2017, alongside Hinch. Price, Rick Porcello, J.D. Martinez, and Ian Kinsler secured victory for Boston in 2018. As for Scherzer and Anibal Sanchez, they emerged victorious as members of the Washington Nationals in 2019.
Since then, the Tigers have not participated in any playoff games. The Tigers reached a low point that no one believed they would ever experience again, coinciding with the year when the last Tigers player to win the Cy Young Award received his championship ring.
This is an unfortunate and twisted tragedy.
And then, Hinch arrived: The individual at the forefront of one of the most astonishing scandals in the sport’s past made a comeback from his downfall. Both he and the team he now leads have much to demonstrate and regain.
What steps can a man take to make amends for such an act? How can the Tigers make the suffering worthwhile?
This time, the task will be completed by repeating the entire process on the identical timeline.
In summary, it can be inferred that the Tigers have a good chance of winning the AL Central in 2022. It would be interesting to keep an eye on the futures odds for confirmation. Additionally, placing bets on the World Series futures could be an enjoyable option. Considering the competition, with only Tony La Russa’s team to contend with, the Tigers may have favorable odds of securing a spot in the postseason. As we all know, sports are unpredictable, and anything can happen.
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