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As a fan of the Detroit Lions, one might feel obligated to adopt a defeatist or gallows-humor attitude. However, when the NFL win totals are released, it’s hard for everyone to resist the excitement.
One surface-level observation from the initial betting splits for the upcoming 2021 National Football League season is evident in the pre-preseason update provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.
You might be surprised to learn that the first-year season of Detroit’s head coach Dan Campbell carries significant weight.
Detroit Lions could be sweat for sportsbooks on win totals
According to the BetMGM report published on Monday morning, the Detroit Lions have received the highest number of bets for surpassing a five-win season (based on the new 17-game schedule) compared to all other 32 teams in the league. The BetMGM market offers odds of -105 for the over bet, while the under bet stands at -115.
What’s intriguing is that the report reveals a fairly balanced distribution of ticket volume on both sides of the Lions ledger. According to BetMGM, 60% of tickets are placed on the over. To put it in perspective, there are 10 other teams with season futures splits ranging in the 50s, percentage-wise.
The distribution of bets on the Lions’ over is slightly imbalanced, with 84% of the money favoring this outcome. Only six other teams have a more pronounced disparity in betting preferences than Detroit on the BetMGM platform.
Your Lions optimism stretches to other sportsbooks
One contributing factor to this situation is the significant presence of BetMGM in Michigan. The casino brand has been dominating the competition in Michigan and its sportsbook operation is consistently ranked within the top three in a state with a high volume of gambling activity. Therefore, to some extent, this could be considered a geographical phenomenon. We have previously witnessed similar occurrences with BetMGM, such as when market tickets for the Cy Young Award market of Detroit Tigers pitcher Casey Mize experienced a sudden increase.
Remember: The Lions are considered underdogs in every single one of their 16 listed games (excluding Week 18). It will be quite a challenge to obtain the six wins needed to surpass that over.
However, the Motor City is now buzzing with optimism thanks to the arrival of a new coaching staff and front office. Additionally, there is renewed excitement surrounding the quarterback position with the introduction of Jared Goff.
If you have strong faith in the Lions having a successful season, you can also find favorable odds at other popular sportsbooks. For example, FanDuel Sportsbook is offering even money (+100) on the Lions surpassing 5 wins.
DraftKings Sportsbook has further reduced the number to a mere 4.5 wins, although this comes with a significant profit price tag of -155 (the under option stands at +125). PointsBet Sportsbook, on the other hand, offers more extreme 4.5-win splits with odds of -170 for over and +130 for under.
WynnBET Sportsbook offers the highest stakes for the most optimistic bettors. They have established a 5.5 win total for the Detroit team, guaranteeing a +140 profit if the over bet is successful (with -200 odds for the under).
Other nuggets on 2021 NFL win totals
Next on the BetMGM “over train” are the Denver Broncos, with odds of -135 to exceed 8.5 wins, and the Philadelphia Eagles, with odds of -130 to surpass 6.5 victories.
It’s worth mentioning that within Philadelphia, you can find the biggest under trend on the BetMGM board without needing to leave the state. The Pittsburgh Steelers (8.5, -130) are leading the teams that are expected to underperform, especially considering this may be Ben Roethlisberger’s last season as their quarterback. Additionally, the Jacksonville Jaguars (6.5, -110) are high on the list due to Urban Meyer’s first coaching season and Trevor Lawrence’s rookie quarterback campaign, as well as the New York Jets (6, -120).
The Houston Texans hold the record for the lowest projected wins total in football, with only four wins projected across various markets.
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