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After experiencing a “normal” offseason, Mel Tucker is ready to unveil his vision for Michigan State football and demonstrate to fans the progress he’s making.
Since the COVID-shortened 2020 season, the Spartans have experienced significant changes in their roster. Now, the looming question is how all these changes will impact the 2021 MSU football team.
Are oddsmakers underestimating the potential of Michigan State this year despite their lack of confidence in the team?
Odds strongly against Michigan State Spartans
Unsurprisingly, the initial College football rankings for the 2021 season did not include Michigan State.
To kick off the season, five teams from the Big Ten Conference (Ohio State at No. 4, Wisconsin at No. 15, Indiana at No. 17, Iowa at No. 18, and Penn State at No. 20) have secured spots in the rankings. Among these teams, MSU will face off against three of them.
Michigan State is considered one of the least likely teams to win the Big Ten according to oddsmakers. WynnBet Sportsbook gives the Spartans odds of +7500 to win the conference, making them one of the biggest underdogs. The only team with even longer odds is Illinois, listed at +15000.
In regards to the College Football Playoff, Michigan State is barely considered in most instances. Caesars Sportsbook sets the odds for MSU to win the national title at +30000.
This year, DraftKings Sportsbook sets the Spartans’ regular season wins at a mere 5 for the over/under.
Highs and lows in Mel Tucker’s debut season
Tucker never anticipated the challenges that awaited him in his inaugural season as he succeeded Mark Dantonio, the long-serving coach at MSU.
Tucker’s entry into the recruiting process was delayed due to the coronavirus pandemic, which ultimately prevented him from implementing his new playbook until the autumn of 2020.
COVID-19 struck the Spartans at the onset of their training camp, causing them to frequently appear disoriented during the entire 2020 season.
Even with a 2-5 record, MSU managed to achieve notable victories, including a 27-24 win against Michigan and a 29-20 triumph over Northwestern, who were crowned champions of the Big Ten West.
MSU experienced significant roster changes during the offseason, resulting in 40 new players joining the 2021 team who were not part of the previous year’s roster.
While the roster overhaul is perceived by many as a boost in talent, there remains a potential concern regarding team chemistry for this season.
Re-tooled Michigan State offense could provide spark
Last season, Michigan State ranked among the nation’s weakest offensive teams, with an average of only 18 points and 330.3 yards per game.
Last fall, MSU’s focus on a powerful ground game under Dantonio resulted in an average of only 91.4 rushing yards per game. The primary reason for this decline can be attributed to the difficulties faced by the offensive line.
MSU is looking forward to utilizing a relatively fresh line this year, with the aim of creating opportunities for transfer Kenneth Walker in the backfield. Walker showcased his talent last season at Wake Forest, accumulating an impressive 579 rushing yards and scoring 13 touchdowns.
In the upcoming season, the Spartans are set to welcome a fresh face as their starting quarterback. Anthony Russo, a transfer from Temple, is currently competing against sophomore Payton Thorne during training camp to secure the coveted starting position.
In the previous season, Thorne’s limited play resulted in him throwing for a total of 582 yards, including three touchdowns and three interceptions. On the other hand, Russo’s impressive performance over three seasons with the Owls saw him amass an impressive 6,000 yards and 44 touchdowns.
Last season, MSU’s defense struggled defensively, surrendering an excessive number of big plays and conceding an average of 35.1 points per game.
It will be a challenging task to generate turnovers since no Spartan player from the previous year managed to secure an interception in 2020.
Five key games to get to 6 wins
Although there are numerous reasons to worry about Michigan State in 2021 when considering their performance on paper, the Spartans have consistently defied expectations during challenging seasons.
If this team can come together successfully, Michigan State seems to have a shot at making it to a bowl game, as many believe that Tucker has done a great job enhancing the talent on the roster.
There is a valid reason to believe that MSU can surpass the win total, as oddsmakers have set it at a mere five.
Eight out of ten of MSU’s 12 games listed on DraftKings Sportsbook depict the Spartans as the underdogs.
These are the games that could play a crucial role in MSU’s journey to achieve bowl eligibility in 2021.
- On September 3rd, MSU kicks off their season against Northwestern on a Friday night. Despite being considered a 4-point underdog, the Spartans have emerged victorious in their last two encounters with the Wildcats, including an unexpected upset in the previous season. A victorious start on the road would greatly contribute towards achieving six wins and securing eligibility for a bowl game.
- On September 25th, Michigan State University will face Nebraska in their first home Big Ten game. Nebraska, under Scott Frost, has struggled to establish themselves as a strong program. According to oddsmakers, MSU is considered a 4-point underdog for this game on their home turf. It will be vital for MSU to defend their home ground in order to reach the goal of winning six games. Nebraska has not proven themselves reliable as a favored team when playing away from home.
- On October 9th at Rutgers, the odds for this game are not yet available. However, Rutgers is considered to have similar odds as Michigan State in the Big Ten competition this season. In the previous year, the Knights managed to break their losing streak by defeating the Spartans in a high-scoring game. In order to surpass expectations, MSU will need to secure victories on the road.
- On October 30th, Michigan State will face off against Michigan. Both teams have uncertainties heading into the season. However, MSU established their dominance last year with a victory in Ann Arbor. Another triumph against Jim Harbaugh’s U-M would solidify Tucker’s position among the fanbase. Despite being considered 6.5-point underdogs, the Spartans thrive on defying expectations, particularly in this heated rivalry.
- On November 13th, MSU will face Maryland as one of the rare occasions where they are favored to win with a 2.5-point advantage. The Spartans have a reputation for causing upsets, but they have also been known to disappoint. They tend to perform at the same level as their opponents in many instances. In order to achieve six wins, MSU must handle this game confidently as the favored team. Considering the stage of the season, the Spartans should have significantly improved compared to their performance at the beginning of the year. If they are struggling in November, it would be a troubling indication for their overall performance.
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