Creating a March Madness bracket that has a genuine chance of winning a bracket contest is no simple task. It requires discovering the perfect balance of favored teams and underdogs – identifying the top seeds with potential for a successful journey and the lower seeds capable of surprising victories.

Although bracketology is predominantly considered an art rather than a science, there are still factual aspects that can assist you in constructing a bracket with a potential for success.

To begin with, it is essential to analyze the regular season and conference tournament records. Additionally, one must carefully review the crucial offensive and defensive statistics. It is important to identify the standout players who possess the potential to guide their team to success. Lastly, it is advisable to consider the opinions of reputable experts regarding each team’s prospects in the NCAA Tournament.

Afterwards, carefully examine history as it has a tendency to repeat itself.

The performance of NCAA Tournament seeds is largely consistent with historical trends. For instance, statistics reveal that in the previous 10 tournaments, #1 seeds emerged victorious in seven instances, and in the last 20 tournaments, they clinched the title 14 times. This accounts for a 70% success rate, suggesting that including a #1 seed in your bracket is a wise choice.

If you want to maximize your March Madness bets or create a successful bracket, here are 10 insights from history that can assist you. To get real-time odds on the NCAA basketball tournament, visit our College Basketball betting page on Michigan online sportsbooks.

1. Only one No. 15 seed has ever made the Sweet 16

In 2013, Florida Gulf Coast achieved a remarkable feat by defeating Georgetown, the No. 2 seed in the South Regional, in the first round. They then proceeded to defeat San Diego State, the No. 7 seed in the second round.

Florida eventually defeated their intrastate rival, ending the Cinderella run in the Sweet 16. Nevertheless, it is essential to acknowledge that historically, No. 15 seeds have only won 8 out of 132 games against No. 2 seeds. Florida Gulf Coast stands as the sole No. 15 seed to triumph and secure a second victory. Consequently, most successful March Madness brackets will include four No. 2 teams advancing to the Sweet 16.

2. No. 1 seeds are 139-1 all-time against No. 16 seeds

In NCAA Tournament history, UMBC created a historic upset in 2018 when they became the first ever No. 16 seed to defeat a No. 1 seed, shocking not only Virginia but the entire world. Unfortunately, their miraculous journey came to an end in the second round when Kansas State put a stop to their Cinderella story. The fact that only one out of 139 No. 16 seeds has ever won a game in the tournament emphasizes the risk involved in betting on such underdogs, making it unlikely for most successful March Madness brackets to predict their victories.

3. The highest ever seed to make the Final Four is a No. 11

Loyola-Chicago, VCU, George Mason, and LSU are among the four No. 11 seeds that have reached the Final Four. However, their remarkable Cinderella journeys all came to an end in the national semifinals. This occurred with Loyola-Chicago in 2018, VCU in 2011, George Mason in 2006, and LSU in 1986.

It can be inferred from this information that March Madness brackets with a seed higher than No. 11 in the Final Four are unlikely to emerge as winners. Furthermore, even if there is a team considered an underdog (Cinderella), they are unlikely to reach the national championship.

4. All four No. 1 seeds have only made the Final Four once

In 2008, a remarkable occurrence took place as Kansas, Memphis, North Carolina, and UCLA all advanced to the Final Four. Astonishingly, this marked only the fifth time in history that three out of the four No. 1 seeds made it to this stage together.

Thirteen instances have seen two No. 1 seeds making it to the finals, with only one of them emerging victorious a total of 15 times. This clearly suggests that simply selecting four No. 1 seeds for the Final Four won’t guarantee success in winning March Madness brackets.

5. At least one No. 1 seed has made the Final Four all but two times

It is highly likely that at least one No. 1 seed will reach the Final Four, as this has occurred on only two occasions in the entire history of the NCAA Tournament. This accounts for less than 6% of the time, indicating that successful March Madness brackets typically include one or two No. 1 seeds in the Final Four.

6. The highest numbered seed to win the NCAA Tournament was a No. 8

The 1985 NCAA Tournament witnessed Villanova crafting the ultimate Cinderella tale by emerging victorious as a No. 8 seed. Remarkably, even three other No. 8 seeds have managed to reach the national championship game.

While Villanova emerged as the sole victor, they achieved as many appearances as the No. 4 and No. 5 seeds combined, surpassing those of the No. 6 and No. 7 seeds. Nevertheless, throughout the history of the NCAA Tournament, a No. 8 seed has only managed to reach the Final Four on five occasions.

Do not assume that a No. 8 seed is required to have a successful run in March Madness brackets. Rather, remember that it is unlikely for a true underdog team to be seeded higher than eighth.

7. No. 3 seeds have made as many championship game appearances as No. 2 seeds

Despite No. 2 seeds making 29 Final Four appearances since 1985, surpassing the 17 appearances by No. 3 seeds, both seedings have an equal record of 12 appearances in the national title game.

In other words, the majority of successful March Madness brackets featuring a No. 3 seed in the Final Four will also have them progressing to the national championship game, as they have historically advanced from that stage 70% of the time.

Nevertheless, due to its mere four NCAA Tournament victories, it is unlikely to come across many brackets where a No. 3 seed occupies the leading position.

8. A No. 2 seed has won the NCAA Tournament only five times

If you believe that the No. 2 seeds have nearly equal chances of winning compared to the No. 1 seeds, reconsider your belief. Surprisingly, since 1985, the No. 2 seeds have only managed to reach the Final Four 29 times and have appeared in the championship game only 12 times.

It is unlikely that a No. 2 seed will win the title in most winning brackets, as it occurs less than 15% of the time. Nevertheless, it is important to note that the last instance where a No. 1 seed did not emerge victorious in the NCAA Tournament was in 2016, when Villanova achieved the championship as a No. 2 seed.

9. No. 12 seeds upset No. 5 seeds in the first round 35% of the time

To find Cinderella, begin your search at No. 12. Over the years, No. 12 seeds have caused 50 upsets in the first round, with three occurring in 2019 alone. Consequently, No. 12 seeds have accumulated a total record of 50-90 against No. 5 seeds, resulting in a winning percentage of .357.

When it comes to the top-seeded NCAA Tournament teams, this is as good as it gets. It provides a solid starting point if you want to predict a few surprising early-round upsets for your March Madness bracket.

Additionally, it is important to mention that out of the 50 winners, 19 have successfully reached the Sweet 16. However, only one team, the Missouri Tigers in the 2002 NCAA Tournament, managed to advance to the Elite 8.

10. A No. 1 seed has won 22 of the past 35 NCAA tournaments

March Madness was expanded to include 64 teams in 1985. Since then, there have been 35 NCAA tournaments, with an impressive 22 victories by No. 1 seeds. This staggering statistic indicates that No. 1 seeds have triumphed in over 60% of the modern era tournaments. Consequently, it is highly likely that most successful March Madness brackets will predict a No. 1 seed as the winner once again this year. Furthermore, No. 1 seeds have achieved 57 Final Four appearances and made it to the national championship game 34 times.

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