Betting Regular Season vs. NFL Playoffs

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Betting Regular Season vs. NFL Playoffs

The National Football League can be seen as a story divided into two distinct parts: the regular season and the NFL Playoffs.

Every year, all 32 NFL teams commence the regular season with aspirations of qualifying for the playoffs. However, out of the 16 games played over a 17-week span, fewer than half manage to secure a spot. This implies that although NFL teams strive to win every game, they cannot afford to let a loss or two ruin their entire campaign. On the other hand, the NFL Playoffs operate under a “do or die” mentality, where teams must give their all every single week.

The regular season and the postseason hold immense distinctions for all parties involved, encompassing players, coaches, referees, fans, as well as sportsbooks, oddsmakers, and both casual and committed sports bettors.

The regular season in the NFL is undoubtedly a serious affair, yet the playoffs take things up a notch with amplified awareness and intensified competition. Continue reading to understand the dynamics of the playoffs, including how they differ from the regular season and how these disparities impact the establishment of betting lines and strategies.

Betting on NFL regular season

In Michigan, sportsbooks provide a range of fundamental betting options for both individual NFL regular-season games and the league overall.

  • Moneylines allow you to place bets on either the favorite or underdog to win a game, with odds expressed in moneyline format. Negative odds indicate the amount you must bet to potentially win $100, in addition to getting your initial bet back, for favorites. On the other hand, positive moneyline odds indicate the potential winnings for every $100 bet (plus the initial bet) on underdogs. Simply place your bet at the current moneyline odds and receive your payout based on those odds if your chosen team emerges victorious.
  • When placing bets on NFL games, you have the option to bet on either the favorite or underdog team to win. However, this decision is based on a point spread set by oddsmakers. The point spread is added to the underdog’s final score or deducted from the favorite’s score to determine the betting winner. Once you have chosen your team, you can place the bet at the currently posted moneyline odds. If your chosen team wins after the point spread is factored into the final score, you will receive your payout at the agreed-upon odds.
  • Totals: The over/under bet option offers the opportunity to predict if the total points scored in a game will exceed or fall below a predetermined line established by oddsmakers. Place your bet at the given moneyline odds and receive a payout based on those odds if the outcome aligns with the side of the line you wagered on.
  • Side bets, also known as props, revolve around the likelihood of certain events occurring during a game, typically pertaining to specific team or player statistics.
  • Parlays involve merging two or more separate bets into one single wager, resulting in a higher payout compared to the total of the individual bets. However, for the parlay to be successful, every single bet within it must win.
  • Teasers provide the opportunity to adjust the point spread in your favor, offering better odds than individual bets but not as high as straight parlays.
  • Futures: Place a wager on a team’s performance in the regular season, their division, conference playoffs, or the Super Bowl. Secure your bet at the prevailing moneyline odds, which sportsbooks modify as the season and playoffs progress.
  • Live Betting allows you to place traditional NFL bets and also offers the opportunity to bet on a wider range of in-game betting markets. The odds for these bets are continuously adjusted throughout the game to reflect the changing action.

NFL regular season facts

In the NFL, there are a total of 32 teams that compete in 16 regular-season games throughout a 17-week period, which spans from September to early January. The league is organized into two conferences, the AFC and NFC, each consisting of 16 teams. Furthermore, within each conference, there are four divisions named East, North, South, and West.

Every team’s yearly schedule comprises of a two-game series, one at home and one away, against its three divisional opponents. The remaining games on each team’s schedule are assembled utilizing the NFL’s proprietary scheduling algorithm, which considers the previous season’s standings and previous scheduling.

In each division, every team will compete against all four teams from one AFC division and one NFC division. Additionally, they will face two more conference opponents determined by their previous season’s standings.

Each team’s objective is to win games and achieve the best regular-season record in order to secure a spot in the playoffs. The ultimate reward is earning a playoff berth. The team with the highest record in the conference is granted home-field advantage for the entire playoffs and a bye in the first round. Moreover, the team with the best record in each division also earns a playoff spot and one of the top four seeds.

The playoffs also include the three teams with the top records, excluding the division winners, which are referred to as wild card teams.

NFL regular season betting realities

In the NFL, during the early season, betting lines are primarily driven by subjective opinions rather than concrete evidence. Sportsbooks have limited information to rely on and therefore tend to make more errors, presenting an advantageous opportunity for well-informed bettors who thoroughly research teams to increase their chances of winning.

As the season progresses, sportsbooks adjust NFL lines to reflect the actual performance of teams, leading to more precise predictions. However, occasional errors occur, and betting opportunities can arise due to the vast number of NFL games held every week.

Nevertheless, as the season reaches its final quarter, oddsmakers have acquired a deep understanding of the league’s dynamics. Consequently, teams tend to meet expectations, enabling oddsmakers to establish exceptionally precise betting lines.

As the NFL season progresses, it becomes increasingly challenging to secure victories through betting.

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As the NFL season progresses, various factors such as weather, injuries, home-field advantage, and historical rivalries come into play when determining the lines. Nonetheless, the most crucial element that tends to prevail is the oddsmakers’ understanding of the teams and their performance in the current season.

To truly embrace NFL betting, it is essential to recognize it as a battle of knowledge. Your primary objective should involve thoroughly studying teams, equipping yourself with information that matches or surpasses that of oddsmakers. This will enable you to identify any potential advantage and gain an edge in your betting endeavors.

Proper research is essential to determine the NFL moneylines, spreads, totals, and props that you should consider betting on every week.

Trim that parlay

Many casual NFL bettors are often enticed by the possibility of a significant payout that large multi-game parlays offer.

During the NFL regular season, the schedule can have a maximum of 16 games in a week. If you were to place a parlay bet on all those games, the potential payout could be around +150,000 or even higher.

For the majority of us, that amount of money can truly change our lives. However, winning such large parlays is extremely unlikely. In reality, experienced sports bettors view a parlay of this magnitude as a foolish bet since the actual chances of winning are even lower than the potential payout.

Betting small amounts of money on longshot parlays like a full-slate NFL parlay is perfectly fine as long as it’s within your financial capabilities. Every year, a few of these bets are likely to be successful across the nation. However, if your goal is to achieve more consistent wins in parlay betting, it is advisable to place smaller parlays.

Winning is significantly more achievable by playing a limited number of games, and even then, the parlay will yield greater returns compared to the combined amounts from individual bets on NFL regular-season games.

Bet early, bet often

During the early season of NFL, betting should be prioritized as the lines are predominantly influenced by subjective views rather than concrete evidence. Therefore, it is advisable to place more bets during this period rather than delaying. The early season presents numerous opportunities that can be exploited to your advantage.

It is advisable to consider placing more bets on NFL futures during the beginning of the season. By placing your bet early on, you secure the odds at that specific moment, which are usually higher during the preseason or early stages of the season.

Michigan sportsbooks update futures odds based on a team’s evolving chances of winning, which typically improve for favorites as the season advances.

It is important to consider that these higher early-season odds also present more opportunities for betting on futures. Essentially, you can minimize risk on your bet for a team to win the Super Bowl by placing bets on other teams, as long as the odds are sufficiently favorable to guarantee a profit if any of your teams emerges victorious.

Betting on the NFL playoffs

In general, Michigan sportsbooks typically provide a similar range of basic NFL bets for both the regular season and the NFL Playoffs.

Initially, only the 14 playoff teams are eligible for NFL futures options. As the playoffs progress and teams are eliminated, the betting odds on the NFL playoffs decrease, resulting in a reduced number of available options. In comparison to the regular season, postseason games tend to have a greater variety of propositions due to oddsmakers being able to concentrate on a smaller selection of games.

The betting lines for NFL playoffs are typically more precise as they involve top-tier teams in the single-elimination phase of the tournament. Moreover, since oddsmakers only need to concentrate on a few games, these lines become remarkably accurate and incredibly challenging to wager on.

To be a savvy sports bettor, it is important to strike a balance between acknowledging the expertise of oddsmakers when it comes to playoff lines, while also recognizing the advantage you have in being able to concentrate your research on a select few games. This allows you the opportunity to discover a greater advantage.

Important NFL playoffs betting factors

Oddsmakers take into account injuries and the past matchups between teams during NFL Playoffs, which greatly influence the betting lines and your wagers.

Nevertheless, the playoffs amplify the significance of weather and home-field advantage due to the specific time of the year and the exceptional quality of the teams earning the privilege to compete in their own stadium.

As an NFL bettor, it is crucial to emphasize the importance of research. To make informed decisions, it is essential to expand your knowledge about the teams and their performance throughout the season. Pay attention to their records at home and on the road, as well as their historical performance against the upcoming opponents. By conducting thorough research and analyzing the NFL Playoff betting markets, you can determine the most favorable moneylines, spreads, totals, props, and futures to bet on each week during the postseason.

Let the research be your guiding factor whether you are placing bets on the Wild Card, Divisional, and Conference Championship rounds of the playoffs, or even the Super Bowl.

NFL playoffs betting tips

Betting on the NFL Playoffs poses an intriguing challenge as you go head-to-head with the skilled NFL oddsmakers. Rest assured that they will be at the top of their game, given the limited action to cover.

Here are some NFL Playoffs betting tips that could assist you in staying sharp:

  • Establish a boundary and adhere to it: Regard the NFL Playoffs as three distinct weeks and allocate a betting fund, based on your financial capacity, for each week. Commence with Wild Card weekend, and if you achieve success, contemplate modifying the budget for the Divisional round. However, if unsuccessful, adhere to the original budget set at the beginning of the playoffs, and repeat this process for the Conference Championships.
  • Stick with what has proven to be effective: If you have achieved success by betting on moneylines and spreads during the regular season, continue doing so in the playoffs. Resist the temptation to venture into prop bets or parlays simply because there are more options available or they appear easier to handle. Although diversifying and placing various types of bets may be beneficial, it is unwise to alter a winning strategy.
  • Live NFL betting offers a distinct chance to diversify your betting options, safeguard successful bets, and potentially compensate for less favorable pregame betting choices. While you’re already engrossed in the games, it’s worthwhile to explore the live in-play betting markets. Here, you can protect yourself from unexpected upsets, adjust a failing betting strategy, and place bets on various in-game propositions.

Super Bowl betting

The Super Bowl marks the grand finale of the NFL Playoffs. With only two teams competing, oddsmakers can dedicate their attention solely to them, resulting in remarkably precise betting lines that are even more challenging to wager on. Unless one team has consistently demonstrated its superiority throughout the season, the Super Bowl betting lines tend to be closely contested, showcasing the top football teams from their respective conferences.

By participating in a single game involving two teams, you have the opportunity to concentrate your research efforts. Consequently, you can promptly identify whether the moneyline, point spread, and totals lines offer favorable betting prospects for you.

Due to the significant increase in the number of props compared to other games throughout the year, it will be slightly more challenging to identify and define them accurately.

Super Bowl MVP

You can place a bet on the Super Bowl MVP, predicting the winner, using one prop.

When placing bets, you typically choose moneyline odds with the quarterbacks as the most likely winners. However, if a team heavily relies on a particular running back throughout the season, they may become the favored choice. It is important to note that in 30 out of 54 Super Bowls, the award has been won by a quarterback.

If you feel like it, you have the option to select a QB and also take a chance on a wide receiver, running back, or even a defensive player. In doing so, there is a possibility of earning profit if any of them emerges as the Super Bowl MVP. This is due to the fact that no player is considered a clear favorite to win the award prior to the game, resulting in decent odds for almost every player.

Super Bowl betting tips

With numerous betting opportunities, the Super Bowl stands as the most significant day on the sports betting calendar, attracting approximately $400 million in wagers at legal US sportsbooks annually.

There isn’t a one-size-fits-all Super Bowl betting strategy due to the wide range of options available. However, here are a few tips that could potentially assist you in achieving success with your Super Bowl bets.

  • Respect the line and defy the public: When it comes to the Super Bowl, the accuracy of the lines is truly remarkable. Throughout history, the favorites have held a record of 28-25-2 against the spread, and the over/under has been successful in 26 out of 27 cases, with no totals betting in Super Bowl I. This demonstrates that the lines have consistently been on point, making it difficult to rely on one side prevailing more frequently. Moreover, it highlights the opportune moment to go against popular opinion and bet against the public. If the initial lines shift due to heavy betting on a particular side, seize the opportunity. Trusting the original predictions made by oddsmakers is a wise decision.
  • To ensure successful betting, it is crucial to thoroughly research the game, teams, and players involved. By dedicating time to research ahead of the Super Bowl, you open doors to various betting opportunities. Allow your research findings to guide your decision-making process, whether it pertains to moneyline and point spread or the numerous prop bets available for the grand event.
  • Take advantage of bonuses: Make the most of the Super Bowl by registering for new accounts on all Michigan online sports betting apps available. Many of them will provide new customers with no-deposit and deposit bonuses, bonus bets, as well as Super Bowl betting promotions and odds boosts.

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How do the NFL playoffs work?

Three things will happen as the NFL expands the NFL Playoffs to include 14 teams for the 2020-21 season.

  1. This year, an additional two teams will qualify for the playoffs, with one team being selected from each conference.
  2. The Wild Card Round will consist of six games instead of four, as two additional playoff games will be added.
  3. Starting this season, only the leading team in each conference will receive a first-round bye, unlike previous seasons where the top two teams were granted this advantage.

In each conference, the team that has achieved the best regular-season record in each of the four divisions is ranked as the top four seeds, from 1 to 4. The highest-seeded team is granted a valuable first-round bye.

The teams that secure the next best records in each conference, excluding the division winners, will now qualify for the playoffs. These teams will be seeded as Numbers 5, 6, and 7.

Each conference now consists of three games in the Wild Card Round.

  • Two versus number seven.
  • Three versus number six.
  • 4 against No. 5

In the next round of the playoffs, the team with the highest seed will compete against the No. 1 seed, while the other two victorious teams will go head-to-head in the Divisional Round the following week. The winners of the Divisional Round will then face each other in the AFC Championship and NFC Championship games the week after.

Two weeks after being crowned as conference champions, the best teams in the NFL clash in the highly anticipated Super Bowl, where they compete for the esteemed NFL title and the prestigious Vince Lombardi Trophy.

Home-field advantage is typically held by the higher-seeded team throughout the NFL Playoffs until the Super Bowl. The Super Bowl traditionally takes place at a neutral site, but there is a possibility for a team to play at their home stadium, as nearly happened with the Minnesota Vikings in 2018.

FAQ

Football attracts the largest sum of money in bets compared to any other sport, with an approximate annual wager of $100 billion by fans. It is important to note that this figure encompasses both professional NFL games and collegiate football.

According to the American Gaming Association, the longer duration and greater quantity of games in the 17-week NFL regular season result in higher betting volumes compared to the three-week NFL Playoffs. It is estimated that up to 38 million adults in the US place bets on NFL games throughout the entire season.

Nevertheless, the Super Bowl continues to hold its position as the most significant betting day in sports, as evidenced by the staggering $6.8 billion wagered on the event in 2020. Surprisingly, over 26 million individuals, representing more than 1 in 10 American adults, placed bets on the game.

The NFL Playoffs saw the inception of wild card entries in 1970. In a notable change for 2020, each conference will now have three wild card teams qualifying for the playoffs, as opposed to the previous two. Consequently, the likelihood of a wild card team triumphing in the Super Bowl has notably increased. Throughout the years since 1970, a total of ten wild card teams have managed to progress to the Super Bowl, with six of them ultimately emerging victorious. Notable teams among the successful wild card champions include:

  • Oakland Raiders (1980)
  • Denver Broncos (1997)
  • Baltimore Ravens (2000)
  • Pittsburgh Steelers (2005)
  • New York Giants (2007)
  • Green Bay Packers (2010)

The decision of whether to bet the over or under is highly contingent on the teams participating and the game’s venue. Several factors need to be taken into account, including the line, offensive and defensive abilities of both teams, as well as the weather conditions, whether it be indoors or outdoors, and if it is cold, warm, or stormy.

Examining historical data reveals that the over and under outcomes in the NFL Playoffs have ranged from 30-38 in the past three years. Nonetheless, it is important to note that historical data cannot accurately predict the future outcomes of the current season.

Predicting the outcome of the Wild Card Round and Divisional Round has always been challenging, primarily due to the higher number of games involved. However, in 2020, the difficulty level has been amplified as there will be two additional games in the Wild Card Round compared to previous seasons.

With six games scheduled for Wild Card Weekend, the NFL Playoffs this year are expected to be highly unpredictable. Nevertheless, upsets are bound to occur in almost every round of the playoffs, adding to the challenge of accurately predicting the outcomes.

Determining which underrated NFL team is poised to upset a presumably overrated squad in the NFL Playoffs requires thorough and reliable research.

To begin, observe the gameplay of teams as they approach the postseason. Proceed by gathering as much knowledge as possible about the playoff-bound teams. Lastly, focus on identifying those teams that managed to secure a playoff spot despite a sluggish start, as they may face division winners who have been inactive for a while after securing their playoff position early.

Teams that are currently on a winning streak tend to maintain their momentum, while teams that haven’t played a significant game in a month might struggle to regain their rhythm.