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When individuals first start exploring sports betting, they will inevitably encounter the term “sucker bet.” This term implies that these particular wagers heavily favor the house, making them undesirable choices for anyone but inexperienced bettors. While the concept behind this term is straightforward, avoiding these bets necessitates a deeper understanding.
Like any other endeavor, success in most markets relies on knowledge. Although sportsbooks aim to win every bet, they don’t typically offer sucker bets. This is because they require customers who place bets in order to generate revenue, so it’s not beneficial for them to offer unfavorable markets. Doing so would tarnish their reputation.
Consumers should be aware of sucker bets despite their inevitable outcomes. To steer clear of such bets, it is crucial to comprehend the functioning of reliable markets.
Not all bets are sucker bets
In Michigan, all wagers made at legal sportsbooks include a “vig” which represents the house’s stake in the market. If you view betting on sports as a source of entertainment, then this can be seen as the fee charged by the sportsbook for offering that enjoyment.
Similar to any other enterprise, sportsbooks incur various expenses. These encompass the expenses related to formulating odds and managing websites, marketing efforts, licensing fees, and taxes. Furthermore, similar to any other business, they aim to generate a profit.
This is the reason why bookmakers engage in handicapping sports events and establish odds that give them a higher chance of winning most of the bets they offer. They are constantly in competition not just with other sportsbooks for your betting money, but also with you as the bettor, striving to prove who is better at forecasting the results of sporting events.
Given this information, it is advisable for bettors to treat every market as if they are at a disadvantage, as this is the reality. However, it does not imply that all bets are foolish choices.
In reality, bettors’ payouts constitute the largest cost for sportsbooks. On average, sportsbooks distribute approximately 90% to 95% of the total amount they receive in wagers each year. If all the markets were heavily biased in their favor, sportsbooks would secure a significantly larger profit margin, surpassing the range of 5% to 10%.
Paying a certain amount as vig is necessary, but excessive vig turns into a disadvantageous bet. To determine acceptable levels, it is crucial to understand win probability and calculate the threshold for each bet under consideration.
How to figure win probability and ID sucker bets
By analyzing the odds provided by a sportsbook for a particular event, you can determine the perceived likelihood of that outcome according to the bookmaker. This knowledge allows you to assess whether the sportsbook is attempting to deceive you.
Suppose you’re contemplating placing a moneyline bet on a Detroit Lions game. In this scenario, the Detroit Lions are favored at -136, and you have a strong belief in their victory.
To determine the probability of winning, start by removing the minus sign. Next, add 100 to the line, resulting in 236. Divide the line by this number, yielding 136/236 = 0.576. Multiply this quotient by 100, and you’ll obtain the percentage. Considering Detroit as the favored team, the sportsbook predicts a 57.6% chance of Detroit winning this game.
Imagine you were contemplating a different game where the Lions were perceived as the less likely team to win. Let’s assume that the odds for Detroit winning the game are +122. Given that these odds are positive, the process differs slightly.
To begin, increase the line by 100, resulting in a total of 222. Next, divide 100 by this sum, yielding 0.45 as the quotient. Lastly, multiply this quotient by 100 to obtain the percentage. Accordingly, the sportsbook estimates that Detroit has a 45% chance of winning the specific game.
Now that you have learned how to calculate win percentages, you can utilize this knowledge to determine if a sportsbook has included excessive vigorish in its betting lines. Frequently, deceptive bets entice bettors with unusually high odds.
How to sniff out sucker bets
In this scenario, the expected value refers to the anticipated profit one can make from a bet. To illustrate, let’s say you come across a sportsbook that offers +200 odds on betting against the Detroit Pistons in a moneyline wager.
According to the win probability formula, it is determined that the sportsbook considers this game to be evenly matched. The sportsbook perceives that the chances of the Pistons winning or losing this game are equal.
Given this information, it may seem strange that the book is willing to potentially give you a $300 payout on a $100 wager if they consider the game to be a tie. This is when it becomes crucial for you to thoroughly research the specific game.
If your own handicapping models indicate that this game is a tie, the long odds offered by the sportsbook make no sense. They would essentially be giving away free money. There is a high chance that the market is a deceptive bet.
However, the tables can turn with sucker bets as well. In some cases, these bets come in the form of markets where you are required to place a substantial wager for a relatively meager payout.
Let’s take an instance where you come across a college football bet featuring the Michigan Wolverines as a -5,000 favorite in a men’s basketball game moneyline. By applying the win probability formula, you deduce that the bookmaker is implying a probability of less than 1% for Michigan to be defeated.
Once more, it is time to assess your personal handicapping models. If you firmly believe that the Wolverines have virtually no possibility of losing this game, the potential return on your investment is quite negligible. In order to earn a profit of $100, you would need to place a wager of $5,000.
Are parlay wagers sucker bets?
However, it is not only moneylines that may have odds that are disadvantageous for bettors. Any type of wager has the potential to have odds that do not align with its expected value. Parlays, for instance, are one such example.
The determining factor of whether a parlay bet is considered unwise is once again based on your expected value. If the potential winnings from placing separate bets on each leg are higher, then it is highly likely that a parlay bet is unwise.
To prevent falling for sucker parlays, a straightforward approach is to personally create the parlays. When you present your wager to the sportsbook, they will provide you with odds. Ultimately, the decision to accept the offered price is in your hands.
For instance, consider if you are examining the total goals scored in four NHL games. Assume the odds for each specific total are all -110, aligning with your desired betting strategy.
If you were to place each bet individually at $110 and win, your total payout would amount to $840. Out of this, $400 would be considered as profit. It is only logical to combine the four lines into a parlay if the potential profit exceeds $400.
Imagine if the sportsbook offers you odds of +350 for your parlay proposal. This might be considered a risky parlay as it increases your chances of losing while offering relatively lower profits.
In order to succeed in the bet, you must emerge victorious in each of the four legs. Failing to meet the target or exceeding it in any single leg will result in your loss. However, due to the increased risk you are taking, you can anticipate a significantly higher payout.
Parlay wagers with adjustable lines, known as “please” bets, are occasionally offered by oddsmakers. However, it is important to note that these bets can easily turn into traps for unsuspecting bettors, depending on the specific circumstances.
How to avoid sucker teaser bets
Point spreads are a popular type of market for teaser wagers, especially in the realm of sports betting. Suppose you are contemplating two baseball run spread markets, which essentially refer to the margin by which the winning team triumphs in a game.
Imagine you are examining the run spreads of two Detroit Tigers games. The desired lines for both games are placed at +1.5 runs, accompanied by odds of +170. Additionally, consider that the MLB betting site is providing a teaser offer, which elevates both lines to +3.5, with a potential payout of +400.
There are two factors to consider for bettors in this scenario. Firstly, would placing each bet separately result in a higher payout? Secondly, is the potential payout from the teased lines worth the additional risk involved?
If you were to stake $100 individually on the +2.5 run-line spreads and win, your normal profit in this scenario would be $340. However, opting for a standard parlay should yield a significantly higher profit than $340.
Although this teaser bet promises a higher payout than a typical parlay, it requires you to go against your handicapping, significantly raising your level of risk.
If you believe that the Tigers are not likely to win both games by a margin of at least four runs, then it is not worth taking the risk to adjust the lines to +3.5 in order to potentially earn $400. Instead, you should anticipate a significantly higher return by going against your own predictions.
One effective method to steer clear of sucker bets is by conducting thorough research. If you come across odds that significantly deviate from those offered by other sportsbooks, it is reasonable to inquire about the reason behind such divergence. Apart from that, relying on your own handicapping models and performing basic calculations to compare the odds provided by various sportsbooks will safeguard you from falling into sucker traps.