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The night of the NBA Draft is consistently filled with chaos.
However, the chaos of the 2022 NBA Draft for Michigan sports bettors and sportsbooks was intensified by a breaking news update from ESPN’s NBA Insider Adrian Wojnarowski, known as a “Woj-bomb,” that came in the early hours of Thursday morning.
Oddsmakers rushed to adjust their predictions and set Auburn’s Jabari Smith Jr. as high as -10000 after receiving strong indications that he would be selected as the number one pick.
However, the Orlando Magic surprised everyone by choosing Duke’s Paolo Banchero instead.
The NBA Draft and NFL Draft undeniably receive the highest media attention among all major sports drafts, consequently generating significant financial interest from sportsbooks.
Betting markets are significantly influenced by the tweets of prominent insiders, particularly on the day of the draft.
Could Thursday’s unexpected shift in the NBA Draft serve as a valuable lesson for the future approach of media and sportsbooks in upcoming drafts?
The ‘Woj Bomb’ that shook up the odds
NBA’s premier insider, Adrian Wojnarowski, made an early morning declaration outlining his predictions for the top three picks in Thursday’s draft.
The tweet had a significant impact on the evening’s odds, causing certain books to remove specific draft markets altogether.
Below is the tweet shared by Woj:
On Thursday, Jabari Smith Jr. from Auburn consistently held the highest chances of being selected as the No. 1 pick. Several sources even placed him at odds as high as -10000, while the majority had him at a minimum of -6000 for significant periods.
BetMGM informed Playinmichigan that the most significant consequence of a tweet from an insider like Wojnarowski is the removal of odds from the board. In line with this, BetMGM temporarily suspended betting on Thursday until Banchero’s involvement was clarified.
“In an email, Christian Cipollini, Sports Trader for BetMGM, stated that the NBA Draft poses a challenging task for handicapping due to the potential impact of rumors and leaks on drastic line movements.”
As the evening drew near, Banchero’s rise in the No. 1 odds market was remarkable. Even Woj, during the ESPN telecast, mentioned that he heard Banchero would be the first pick. Surprisingly, the Orlando Magic indeed chose Banchero.
Those who chose to disregard Wojnarowski’s previous tweets may have scored a significant payday. Meanwhile, certain sportsbooks that heavily favored Smith celebrated a major victory.
The timeline of NBA Draft odds chaos
Below is a detailed summary of the events that unfolded throughout the day for the sportsbooks.
Morning Woj Bomb
- At 8:41 a.m., the tweet mentioned above is posted by Wojnarowski.
- At 9:52 a.m., the FanDuel Sportsbook Twitter account posts the latest odds, stating that Smith is at -6000 and Banchero is at +550.
- At 11:14 a.m., CBS Sports CBB Insider Jon Rothstein tweeted the current Top 3 odds provided by FanDuel. Smith had a -3500 odds to be selected at No. 1, while Chet Holmgren also had -3500 odds to be chosen at No. 2. Banchero, on the other hand, had -1050 odds to be picked at No. 3.
- At 12:04 p.m., DraftKings sends a tweet to Wojnarowski, kindly requesting him to refrain from revealing draft picks in advance to maintain the integrity of betting opportunities.
Banchero’s climb
As the NBA Draft neared, Banchero gradually regained his position at the top. FanDuel was the first to acknowledge his worth, but others soon realized that Smith was not a guaranteed choice for the No. 1 spot.
- At 3:55 p.m., FanDuel Sportsbook revised its odds for the first selection in the draft. Smith’s odds were adjusted to -280, indicating a higher likelihood of being chosen first, whereas Banchero’s odds stood at +200, suggesting a lesser chance. FanDuel Sportsbook also mentioned that earlier in the day, Smith’s odds were positioned at an extremely high -10000.
- At 7:15 p.m., BetMGM revised its odds, setting Smith’s chances of being selected at No. 1 at -800. Additionally, Holmgren’s odds of going at No. 2 were adjusted to -1000, while Banchero’s chances of going at No. 3 were set at -700.
Woj changes course as draft begins
Chaos ensued during the half hour preceding the NBA Draft’s commencement at 8 p.m.
- At 7:40 p.m., Woj made a significant update on Twitter stating that Duke’s Paolo Banchero, along with Auburn’s Jabari Smith, are now being seriously considered as potential candidates for the franchise’s top pick in the NBA Draft. According to sources, there is a genuine possibility that the draft order at the beginning of the lottery could undergo major changes.
- At 7:55 p.m., Wojnarowski announces via tweet that Banchero has now solidified his position as the leading candidate to be chosen as the number one pick.
- At 7:57 p.m., BetMGM shares a tweet featuring the statement “Woj this morning: ‘Jabari Smith is undoubtedly the top pick,'” accompanied by a clever wink from Kathryn Hahn of WandaVision.
- At 7:59 p.m., Banchero was listed at -200 and Smith at +150 by DraftKings Sportsbook for the No. 1 spot.
Big Banchero Bettors
Banchero’s journey to becoming the top pick was truly remarkable, extending beyond the dramatic events of Thursday.
On the previous Sunday, Banchero’s odds of being selected as the No. 1 pick at DraftKings Sportsbook were +2000. A fortunate bettor placed a $2,000 bet on the Duke forward that day and received a $42,000 payout on Thursday night.
BetRivers Sportsbook suffered significant losses in the top pick market, with Banchero being responsible for a staggering 54.5% of their wagers and a substantial 43.4% of their total handle.
At BetRivers, wagers on Banchero resulted in over $10,000 in payouts across four distinct bets. Additionally, there were 14 other bets that paid out a minimum of $4,000.
BetMGM comes out strong
Despite the confusion, BetMGM appeared to emerge as the winner, while BetRivers and other operators might have suffered setbacks.
As of Thursday morning, BetMGM had the majority of its handle, 70.7%, placed on Smith to be selected as the No. 1 pick. Smith was undoubtedly the largest risk for the company.
Since the operator released the odds, Smith has consistently remained a popular choice. He initially opened at -105 and his odds had risen to -550 before Woj’s tweet.
Will this change how insiders operate?
Previously, it was common for people to overlook the fact that a respected individual could make a statement in the morning and have a completely different stance by the time the final version is released.
But, money talks.
Thursday proved that insiders who heavily wager on drafts carry significant influence in the betting industry, as these events now involve substantial amounts of money being exchanged nationwide.
Will the operators or the leagues themselves hold these insiders accountable for the information they provide before a betting event?
Is it possible for leagues to enforce stricter regulations on the information shared by insiders like Wojnarowski or Adam Schefter on draft day?
It’s reasonable to anticipate potential changes in the near future following the unpredictable events of Thursday.
